Location: Crop Production and Protection
Project Number: 0206-22000-001-055-A
Project Type: Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Aug 25, 2025
End Date: Aug 24, 2026
Objective:
This study will assess returns on investment in research by ARS, SAES, and the private sector for specific crop and livestock commodities. These findings can help prioritize USDA investments in agricultural R&D and provide lesson on the respective roles of USDA, SAES and private sector in generating advances in science and technology needed to sustain productivity growth and competitiveness of U.S. agriculture.
Approach:
This study will use an econometric modeling approach to estimate relationships between agricultural productivity growth and public and private in research and development (R&D) capital stock. Productivity will be measured as an index of total factor productivity by commodity. R&D capital stock will be measured as the accumulation of past investments in R&D, taking into account lag times between R&D spending and farm productivity growth as well as eventual R&D capital depreciation.
The study will utilize and build on datasets constructed by the Cooperator that measure (i) total factor productivity growth in U.S. field crops and livestock commodities over 1975-2023 using USDA commodity cost and returns data; (ii) Annual research spending by USDA and SAES research institutes, by state and by commodity since 1970, utilizing raw data files from the Current Research Information System (CRIS), and, for crops, (iii) annual issues of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) - both utility patents and Plant Variety Protection Certificates - for new crop varieties, by crop and application/owner. The data on research spending and IPR are treated as flows of new scientific information that build up the stock of knowledge over time, resulting in stream of new technology that are adopted by farmers and raising productivity. Productivity may be yield-enhancing and/or cost-reducing, in either case contributing to profitability and economic welfare. Increases in commodity productivity and output can also influence (reduce) farm commodity prices, shifting some of the economic impacts from producers to users and consumers of the commodities.
The target commodities for ROI analysis include, CROPS = Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton, Rice, Grain Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Peanuts; LIVESTOCK = Dairy, Cow-Calf, Hogs. The focus period will be national productivity gains achieved over 1975-2024. The methodology will take into account interactions between Federal-State and public-private research (i.e., whether one makes the others more impactful).