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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Grazinglands Research Laboratory » Agroclimate and Natural Resources Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #280166

Title: Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

Author
item Ojima, Dennis - Colorado State University
item Steiner, Jean
item Mcneeley, Shannon - National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
item Cozetto, Karen - National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
item Childress, Amber - Colorado State University
item Cole, Noel
item Drummond, Mark - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item Morgan, Jack
item Howell, Terry
item Markstrom, Steve - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item Lazrus, Heather - National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
item Averyt, Kristen - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item Farris, Laura - Us Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
item Miller, Kathy - National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
item Gascoine, Billy - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item Gough, Bob - Non Ars Employee
item Tellinghouse, Stacy - Non Ars Employee
item Tidwell, Vince - Sandia National Laboratory
item Gross, John - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
item Skagins, Susan - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item Kunkel, Ken - University Of Nebraska
item Stevens, Laura - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item Kruk, Michael - Non Ars Employee
item Thomas, Devin - Non Ars Employee
item Janssen, Emily - University Of Illinois
item Hubbard, Kenneth - University Of Nebraska
item Schulski, Martha - University Of Nebraska
item Umphlett, Natalie - University Of Nebraska
item Robbins, Kevin - Louisana State University
item Romolo, Luigi - Louisana State University
item Akyuz, Adnan - North Dakota State University
item Pathak, Tapan - University Of Nebraska
item Bergantino, Tony - University Of Wyoming
item Aldridge, Cam - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item Wood, Elizabeth - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
item Rose, Matt - Non Ars Employee
item Wellings, Leigh - Non Ars Employee

Submitted to: Government Publication/Report
Publication Type: Other
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/18/2012
Publication Date: 3/15/2014
Citation: Ojima, D., Steiner, J.L., Mcneeley, S., Cozetto, K., Childress, A., Cole, N.A., Drummond, M., Morgan, J.A., Howell, T.A., Markstrom, S., Lazrus, H., Averyt, K., Farris, L., Miller, K., Gascoine, B., Gough, B., Tellinghouse, S., Tidwell, V., Gross, J., Skagins, S., Kunkel, K., Stevens, L., Kruk, M., Thomas, D., Janssen, E., Hubbard, K., Schulski, M., Umphlett, N., Robbins, K., Romolo, L., Akyuz, A., Pathak, T., Bergantino, T., Aldridge, C., Wood, E., Rose, M., Wellings, L. 2014. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report. Government Publication/Report. http://downloads.globalchange.gov/nca/technical_inputs/Great_Plains_technical_input.pdf.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The GP is characterized by high spatial and temporal climate variability, and climate change is already happening with an overall warming trend. North Dakota, for example, has experienced an average annual temperature increase of 0.26ºF per decade during the last 130 years, the fastest increase in the nation. Over the last decade the region has seen significant extremes, from Missouri River Basin flooding, to exceptional drought in the Southern Plains, to fires and tornadoes resulting in billions of dollars in economic damage, morbidity, and mortality. Changes in precipitation patterns, the timing of seasonality of rain and snow and the alterations of large scale circulation patterns have major impacts on water availability in the region. Decreased snowfall in lower mountain elevations combined with earlier spring runoff impacts the timing and amount of streamflow affecting irrigators and other users of surface water resources. The Northern Great Plains is expected to increase in extreme precipitation events, leading to more damaging flooding. Drought is expected to increase, especially in the drier western portions of the GP. Groundwater systems that are already stressed, such as in Ogallala Aquifer, will be further stressed by climate change. Crops will be impacted differently where some GP areas will benefit from a longer growing season and more rainfall while others parts will experience decreased productivity because of drought and extreme temperatures. Livestock industries are vulnerable to climate extremes and may face increased competition for land and water resources. Bioenergy production is an area of potential rural economic development and may contribute to domestic energy independence and reduction of fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions. One limitation on the expansion of corn ethanol production in the GP is the use of ground water in already water-stressed areas. Because of the importance of energy and water in the Great Plains, the water-energy nexus is critical to understand. Water is needed for energy extraction, production, and power; energy is needed to move and treat water. The GP population has been moving into urban areas, which are vulnerable to climate change. Heat waves lead to increased morbidity of the highly vulnerable populations in cities. Heat waves with long periods over 100ºF increase problems with transportation and electricity infrastructure. The 65 registered Native American tribes in the GP are often located in relatively marginal areas lacking access to fertile soils, appropriate housing, electricity and energy sources, food and water sources. This makes many tribal members vulnerable to impacts of climate change, but also sources of innovation in developing and sustaining viable economies and providing a set of strategies to cope with climate change. Ecosystems are stressed by climate variability and change such as droughts, floods, and winter storms that have altered plant community phenology, streamflow, and wetland dynamics. Warming water temperatures combined with stressors such as impoundments, diversions, sedimentation, decreased water quality are pushing aquatic species to their limits. Change of the timing and amount of hydrological events critical to breeding or migration times will exacerbate by stresses on aquatic species. Climate change will shift the geographic distribution of diseases in the Great Plains, which will affect human, ecosystem, and livestock health. Addressing climate change and its effects on ecosystems, resources, and society will require coordination of multi