Submitted to: International Soil and Water Conservation Conference
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/15/2007
Publication Date: 7/1/2007
Citation: Zhang, X.J., Liu, W., Li, Z., Shen, H., Wang, J. 2007. Assessing impact of climate change on soil erosion and conservation in southern Loess Plateau of China [abstract]. International Soil and Water Conservation Conference, July 21-25, 2007, Tampa, Florida. p. 89. 2007 CD-ROM. Interpretive Summary: Abstract Only.
Technical Abstract: As clearly stated in a special report from the Soil and Water Conservation Society, the potential for projected climate changes to increase the risk of soil erosion and related environmental consequences is clear, but the potential damages are not. There is a need to assess the potential damages across a wide range of climate and geographical conditions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the site-specific impacts of projected climate change on water resources, soil erosion, and crop production at Changwu, Shaanxi, China, using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model and a newly developed spatiotemporal downscaling scheme. Projected climate change scenarios of four Global Climate Models (GCMs of Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, and Japan) under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa) were downloaded from IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) Data Distribution Center. The preliminary results from the U.K. Hadley Centre’s Climate Model (HadCM3) were given here. HadCM3 predicted that average annual precipitation during 2010-2039 would increase by 4 to 18% at Changwu, depending on emissions scenarios. Due to the warming effects, frequency and intensity of large storms would also increase in the area. Under conventional tillage, percent increases under climate change, compared with the present climate, would be 49-112% for runoff and 31-167% for soil loss. However, soil losses would be decreased by 39-51% if the conservation tillage is adopted under climate change, indicating the effectiveness of surface residue in reducing soil loss. In general, simulated wheat and maize yields would increase in response to increases in precipitation.