Submitted to: Journal of Food Protection
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/17/2023
Publication Date: 4/17/2023
Citation: Oscar, T.P. 2023. Poultry food assess risk model for salmonella and chicken gizzards: II. Illness dose step. Journal of Food Protection. 86(6):100091. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfp.2023.100091.
Interpretive Summary: Salmonella bacteria in food are a leading cause of illness in the United States and throughout the world. In a previous study, it was found that 35% of chicken gizzard samples (2 ounces) were contaminated with Salmonella at levels from 1 to 2.5 (median) to 691cells. In this study, a model that predicts the relationship between dose of Salmonella consumed and number of consumers that become ill was developed and tested against published data from human outbreak investigations and human feeding trials for Salmonella. Results indicated that the model provided reliable predictions of the ability of Salmonella to cause illness in humans and thus, can be used with confidence to help identify unsafe chicken gizzards before they are consumed. This should help to slow the current pandemic of illness from food like chicken gizzards that are contaminated with Salmonella bacteria.
Technical Abstract: A Poultry Food Assess Risk Model (PFARM) for Salmonella was developed to find unsafe chicken gizzards (CG) before they are consumed. In a companion study, the first step (Hazard Identification or HI) of PFARM for Salmonella and CG was presented. In the present study, the second step (Hazard Characterization or HC) of PFARM for Salmonella and CG is presented. In HC, the relationship between dose of Salmonella consumed (DC) and proportion of consumers that become ill (Pill) from CG was simulated. HC was simulated with a disease triangle (DT), dose-response (DR) model (M) developed with human feeding trial (HFT) and human outbreak (HO) data for Salmonella. How well the DT, DRM in PFARM predicted Pill for individual serotypes and strains of Salmonella from HFT and HO was tested using the Acceptable Prediction Zones (APZ) method. The DT, DRM provided acceptable predictions of Pill when pAPZ (proportion of residuals in the APZ) was = 0.70 for an individual serotype or strain of Salmonella or overall. pAPZ for Pill data for serotypes from HFT were 0.81 for Anatum (n = 19), 1.00 for Meleagridis (n = 20), 0.90 for Pullurom (n = 16), 0.90 for Bareilly (n = 4), 1.00 for Derby (n = 5), 0.68 for Newport (n = 3), and 0.91 (n = 67) for all serotypes. pAPZ for strains of Anatum, Meleagridis, and Pullorum were = 0.70 except for strain II of Anatum where pAPZ was 0.56 (n = 8). pAPZ for Pill data for serotypes from HO were 0.80 for Enteritidis (n = 28), 0.96 for Typhimurium (n = 9), 1.00 for Infantis (n = 1), and 0.84 (n = 38) for all serotypes. These results indicated that the DT, DRM in PFARM provided acceptable predictions of Pill data from HFT and HO with a few exceptions and thus, can be used with confidence in PFARM for Salmonella and CG.