Location: Insect Behavior and Biocontrol ResearchTitle: Response of a rice insect pest, Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in warmer world
|BARI, M - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute|
|HAQUE, S - Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission|
|NOWRIN, F - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute|
|CHOUDHURY, T - Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission|
|AHMED, N - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute|
Submitted to: BMC Zoology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/10/2020
Publication Date: 6/22/2020
Citation: Bari, M.N., Haque, S.S., Nowrin, F., Choudhury, T.R., Mankin, R.W., Ahmed, N. 2020. Response of a rice insect pest, Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in warmer world. BMC Zoology. 5:6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40850-020-00055-5.
Interpretive Summary: The yellow stem borer (YSB) is an important pest in rice-growing regions of Southern Asia. Farmers try to predict pest outbreaks based on temperature or rainfall, but changes in the climate of rice growing regions have complicated attempts to time control treatments properly. Scientists at the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission, and the USDA-ARS Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, Gainesville, FL, have developed a model of YSB populations based on both temperature and rainfall that predicts their populations more precisely than previously. The growth rate of YSB was found to be high at relatively low temperatures and abundant rainfall, but relatively lower under other conditions. The results of the model are being disseminated to farmers to help them decide when to apply control treatments.
Technical Abstract: Background Increases in global mean temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic events are expected results of climate change. The individual effects of elevated temperature and precipitation on insect pests due to the impact of climate change have been widely modeled individually but their combined effects are poorly understood. Results Ten years of monthly abundance of an important economic rice insect pest, the rice yellow stem borer (YSB), Scirpophaga incertulas Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), was modeled in relation to temperature and rainfall using cross-correlation functions, general linear models, ARIMA models and simple linear regressions. The results suggested that increasing temperature and rainfall separately had a positive effect on growth rate of YSB. However, the combined effect of high temperature and rainfall was negative Temperature affected abundance of YSB negatively at high rainfall, but positively at intermediate to low rainfall level. The growth rate of YSB was found to be high at relatively low temperature and abundant rainfall. Conclusion The combined effects of temperature and rainfall showed a quadratic response of YSB abundance, which indicated that outbreak risk of YSB may be reduced if climate change results in increasing temperature and rainfall. It should be noted that we could address only a few of the important factors which could influence our model prediction.