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Location: Subtropical Plant Pathology Research

Title: Agent-based model to predict/monitor the efficacy and cost of various ACP control strategies

item LUO, WEIQI - North Carolina State University
item POSNY, DREW - North Carolina State University
item ZHANG, SHUO - North Carolina State University
item MCROBERTS, NEIL - University Of California
item Gottwald, Timothy

Submitted to: Journal of Citrus Pathology
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 12/20/2016
Publication Date: 5/18/2017
Citation: Luo, W., Posny, D., Zhang, S., McRoberts, N., Gottwald, T.R. 2017. Agent-based model to predict/monitor the efficacy and cost of various ACP control strategies. Journal of Citrus Pathology. 4(1):26/45.

Interpretive Summary: The recent finds of ACP in the California Central Valley increases the awareness for potential HLB establishment. A mathematical model incorporating ACP and HLB biology was developed to simulate how the disease is spread in a mixed residential and commercial landscape. A large area of Porterville is used as a case study. This simulation improves our understanding of the ACP/HLB dynamics under realistic weather conditions in an actual CA landscape. In addition, it can evaluate the behavior and distribution of ACP/HLB subject to different management strategies, and assist development of enhanced surveillance strategies to optimize the development of sampling resources.

Technical Abstract: Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB), spread by the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) vector, is a devastating disease threatening nearly every citrus producing area worldwide. Given the recent findings of ACP in California’s Central Valley, an increase in ACP prevalence is inevitable which heightens the risk of HLB introduction into commercial citrus. This poses a major threat to the viability of the citrus industry emphasizing the urgent need for proactive regulatory intervention and disease control. Understanding the spread of ACP across different landscapes (i.e. residential, commercial, and mixed) is crucial in designing optimal survey methodologies and control strategies to mitigate the impact of HLB infection. We utilize an agent-based model approach to investigate the spread of ACP and HLB in a real-world setting. Instead of using ‘toy’ data, a 16 square mile area of Porterville, CA with residential and commercial citrus present is used as a case study for the simulation. The mathematical model incorporates ACP population dynamics as well as ACP and HLB spread by considering factors such as psyllid life span and mortality, net reproduction rate in the natural environment, psyllid dispersal distance, citrus host type and density, flush availability through new flush production or infected tree decline, and effects of different management schemes including biological control (via Tamarixia), large scale or infield survey, and chemical spray. We also conduct a cost-benefit analysis by assessing the productivity after different control methods are applied. This simulation model can quantify the influence of input epidemiological parameters on ACP/HLB development, and be utilized as a tool for HLB control planning.