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Title: Identifying economic hurdles to early adoption of trunk disease preventative practices in California winegrape vineyards

item KAPLAN, JONATHAN - California State University
item TRAVADON, RENAUD - University Of California
item COOPER, MONICA - University Of California - Cooperative Extension Service
item HILLIS, VICKEN - University Of California
item LUBELL, MARK - University Of California
item Baumgartner, Kendra

Submitted to: American Society of Enology and Viticulture Annual Meeting Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/15/2016
Publication Date: 6/1/2016
Citation: Kaplan, J., Travadon, R., Cooper, M., Hillis, V., Lubell, M., Baumgartner, K. 2016. Identifying economic hurdles to early adoption of trunk disease preventative practices in California winegrape vineyards. American Society of Enology and Viticulture Annual Meeting Abstracts. 53.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Trunk diseases poses a serious threat to winegrape growers. Despite high prevalence and substantial consequences, growers routinely wait to adopt field-tested, preventative practices (delayed pruning, double pruning, or application of pruning wound protectant) until symptomatic vines appear (~10 years old). We investigate why growers are not adopting earlier. To do so, we quantify the gains from adopting practices at different ages in infected vineyards by simulating winegrape production in different crush districts in California using a bioeconomic model parameterized with scientific evidence on trunk diseases, preventative practices, and vineyard costs and returns. We find growers are better off adopting a preventative practice when the vineyard is infected then not and is best off adopting in a 3-year old vineyard. Also, the profitable lifespan of an infected vineyard can increase by >50% when practices are adopted in young vineyards. However, it takes 2-10 years for practices adopted in year 3 to outperform no action; 0-8 years when adopted in year 5; and 0-4 years when adopted in year 10, likely leading growers to perceive preventative practices as less effective than they are. Next, when practice costs are <$100 per acre and the perceived risk of infection is >1%, early adoption is preferred to waiting. When practice costs are >$200 per acre, however, adoption occurs when the probability of infection is close to 1, indicating many will wait for certainty before adopting. Lastly, at very low levels of perceived infection risk, the earliest adoption may not be optimal because gains in net returns from adopting early in an infected vineyard do not outweigh the costs if the vineyard is healthy. To alleviate delay in adoption, we see a need to further inform growers of the benefits using new extension tools.