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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Columbia, Missouri » Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #325496
Title: Diversifying soybean production risk using maturity group and planting date choices

Author
item WEEKS, WES - University Of Arkansas
item POPP, MICHAEL - University Of Arkansas
item SALMERON, MONTSERRAT - University Of Arkansas
item PURCELL, LARRY - University Of Arkansas
item GBUR, ED - University Of Arkansas
item BORULAND, FRED - University Of Arkansas
item BUEHRING, NORMIE - Mississippi State University
item EARNEST, LARRY - University Of Arkansas
item FRITSCHI, FELIX - University Of Missouri
item GOLDEN, BOBBY - Mississippi State University
item Vories, Earl

Submitted to: Agronomy Journal
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/13/2016
Publication Date: 5/24/2016
Citation: Weeks, W., Popp, M.P., Salmeron, M., Purcell, L., Gbur, E.E., Boruland, F.M., Buehring, N.W., Earnest, L., Fritschi, F.B., Golden, B.R., Vories, E.D. 2016. Diversifying soybean production risk using maturity group and planting date choices. Agronomy Journal. 108(5):1917-1929. doi: 10.2134/agronj2016.01.0056.

Interpretive Summary: Soybean is a major crop throughout the US and due to the long growing season for soybean production in the region, producers in the Mid-southern US plant from late March to June and have a range of maturity group (MG) choices that are physiologically and economically viable. University and ARS scientists collaborated in a three-year study across nine Midsouth locations beginning in 2012 and those results were analyzed to determine risk-return tradeoffs across MG and planting date (PD). Early season planting combinations were found to be riskier than successive planting dates. Across different environments, selecting two to five MG × PD combinations was sufficient to lower risk when compared to the single, profit-maximizing MG × PD choice. These results have strong implications for MG and PD recommendations for Midsouth soybean production. This research will benefit producers by helping them reduce financial risk.

Technical Abstract: Due to the long growing season for soybean (Glycine max) production in the region, producers in the Mid-southern US plant from late March to June and have a range of maturity group (MG) choices that are physiologically and economically viable. Three years of field trial data from nine locations in six states were analyzed to determine risk-return tradeoffs across MG and planting date (PD). Producer revenue expectations were adjusted by soybean harvest date, assessing oil and meal premiums or discounts, and differential irrigation requirements by MG and PD whereas costs for seed, fuel, fertilizer, equipment and chemicals were held constant. Using portfolio theory, an efficient frontier – maximizing returns for a given level of risk or minimizing risk for a given level of return – was estimated by location. Cultivars from MG III and MG IV had higher expected returns than MG V and VI at all locations. Early season planting combinations were found to be riskier than the three successive planting dates but led to oil, protein, and seasonal sale price premia. Across different environments, selecting two to five MG × PD combinations was sufficient to lower risk from 29% to 40% when compared to the single, profit-maximizing MG × PD choice. Depending on location, this risk reduction cost 2 to 22% of the returns achievable with the profit-maximizing MG × PD choice.