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Title: Modelling the economics and efficacy of early adoption of preventative practices for managing trunk diseases

item Baumgartner, Kendra
item TRAVADON, RENAUD - University Of California
item COOPER, MONICA - University Of California - Cooperative Extension Service
item HILLIS, VICKEN - University Of California
item LUBELL, MARK - University Of California
item KAPLAN, JOHNATHAN - California State University

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/20/2015
Publication Date: 6/20/2015
Citation: Baumgartner, K., Travadon, R., Cooper, M., Hillis, V., Lubell, M., Kaplan, J. 2015. Modelling the economics and efficacy of early adoption of preventative practices for managing trunk diseases. Meeting Abstract. Australian Society for Viticulture and Oenology Abstracts. June 21-24, 2015, Mildura, Victoria, Australia.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Trunk diseases pose one of the most significant threats to vineyard longevity, since the introduction of Phylloxera. Research on resistant germplasm and detection tools will help in the long term. In the short term, we aim to promote preventative practices. Experimental trials show three practices to minimize infection of pruning wounds: delayed pruning, double pruning, and the fungicide thiophanate-methyl (Topsin). For optimal efficacy, these practices must be adopted in young, healthy vineyards, but our surveys of California grape growers and pest control advisors revealed adoption instead primarily in mature, diseased vineyards. Using economic simulations for winegrape production in five California regions (Napa-Sonoma, Central Coast, Northern San Joaquin, Southern San Joaquin, Northern California), we estimated the long-term benefits of preventative practices, under varying disease control efficacy (25, 50, and 75%), when adopted in vineyards of different ages (3, 5, and 10 years). Our finding that all but one scenario resulted in greater returns across all regions, compared to no action, suggests that doing nothing to prevent trunk diseases is costly. All practices and efficacy levels evaluated in 3-year-old vineyards resulted in positive returns, thus highlighting the value of adopting preventative practices soon after the vines are trained. No action resulted in negative returns in Northern California, Northern San Joaquin, and the Central Coast. In these regions, we observed positive returns when either delayed pruning or Topsin (assuming 50 or 75% efficacy) was adopted in 3 or 5-year-old vineyards. Returns in Southern San Joaquin and Napa-Sonoma remained positive under no action, but at levels only 5 to 10% that of healthy vineyards.