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Title: Evaluation of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes in the Salt River Basin, Missouri, United States

item PHUNG, QUANG - University Of Missouri
item THOMPSON, A - University Of Missouri
item Baffaut, Claire
item COSTELLO, CHRISTINE - University Of Missouri
item Sadler, Edward
item LUPO, ANTHONY - University Of Missouri
item SVOMA, BOHUMIL - University Of Missouri
item GAUTAM, SAGAR - University Of Missouri

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/1/2015
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The impact of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes at the watershed scale is needed by land managers and policy makers to properly assess potential adaptation strategies. While numerous studies have been conducted on hydrologic processes in the Midwest, only a few have analyzed the linkages between climate and land use changes. The objective of this study is to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of the Salt River Basin (SRB). This basin, located in Northeast Missouri, is a direct tributary to the Mississippi River. Total drainage area is 6,417 km2 at the outlet of Mark Twain Lake. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to characterize hydrology in the SRB under varying future climate and land use scenarios. The watershed's hydrologic processes were simulated using streamflow data at two USGS stations from 1970-2060, with model calibration from 1970-1999 and validation from 2000-2013. Future climate data from 2014-2060 were obtained from Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP 8.5 and 4.5, were considered. Statistical downscaling methods, including delta method and quantile mapping, were used to further downscale these data to the climate station level. Four land use scenarios that project increases and decrease of agricultural land were created. Combinations of land use and climate changes over a range of conditions were examined to indicate possible outcomes useful for local and national agency application.