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Research Project: Intervention Strategies to Control and Prevent Disease Outbreaks Caused by Avian Influenza and Other Emerging Poultry Pathogens

Location: Exotic & Emerging Avian Viral Diseases Research

Title: Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

Author
item Russell, Colin - University Of Cambridge
item Kasson, Peter - University Of Virginia
item Donis, Ruben - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Riley, Steven - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Dunbar, John - Los Alamos National Research Laboratory
item Rambaut, Andrew - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Asher, Jason - Us Department Of Health And Human Services (HHS)
item Burke, Stephen - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Davis, C. Todd - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Garten, Rebecca - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Gnanakaran, S - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Hay, Simon - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Herfst, Sander - Erasmus Medical Center
item Lewis, Nicola - University Of Cambridge
item Lloyd-smith, James - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Macken, Catherine - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Maurer-stroh, Sebastian - Nanyang Technological University
item Neuhaus, Elizabeth - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Parrish, Colin - Cornell University - New York
item Pepin, Kim - Us Department Of Agriculture (USDA)
item Shepard, Sam - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Smith, David - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Suarez, David
item Trock, Susan - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item Widdowson, Marc-alain - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDCP) - United States
item George, Dylan - National Institutes Of Health (NIH)
item Lipsitch, Marc - Harvard University
item Bloom, Jesse - Seattle University

Submitted to: eLife
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/1/2014
Publication Date: 10/16/2014
Publication URL: http://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/59847
Citation: Russell, C.A., Kasson, P.M., Donis, R.O., Riley, S., Dunbar, J., Rambaut, A., Asher, J., Burke, S., Davis, C., Garten, R.J., Gnanakaran, S., Hay, S.I., Herfst, S., Lewis, N.S., Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Macken, C.A., Maurer-Stroh, S., Neuhaus, E., Parrish, C.R., Pepin, K.M., Shepard, S., Smith, D.L., Suarez, D.L., Trock, S.C., Widdowson, M., George, D., Lipsitch, M., Bloom, J.D. 2014. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment. eLife. doi: 10.7554/eLife.03883.

Interpretive Summary: Influenza viruses can infect a wide range of animals from pigs, horses, dogs, chickens, and wild birds. Although all of these viruses are classified as influenza viruses, many variants exist that may or may not infect and cause disease in humans. The concern is that an animal virus may begin infecting humans resulting in a serious and widespread disease outbreak. This paper describes our current knowledge in how to predict which animal viruses present the greatest threat of introduction and serious disease in humans. As our knowledge increases about influenza, we will be able to increase our predictive ability. In addition detection of what influenza viruses are circulating in animals is also important.

Technical Abstract: Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions tremendously difficult. Integration of experimental work, computational tool development and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to provide a step-change in the level of insight obtained from current scientific and public health investments.