Prospects of increased dairy farm forage production under climate and land-use changes in Newfoundland, Canada

Authors: CORDEIRO, MARCOS - Agri Food - Canada; Rotz, Clarence - Al; KROEBEL, ROLAND - Agri Food - Canada; BEAUCHEMIN, KAREN - Agri Food - Canada; HUNT, DEREK - Agri Food - Canada; BITTMAN, SHABTAI - Agri Food - Canada; KOENIG, KAREN - Agri Food - Canada; MCKENZIE, DAVID - Agri Food - Canada

Submitted to: Agronomy
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/10/2019
Publication Date: 1/12/2019
Citation: Cordeiro, M.R., Rotz, C.A., Kroebel, R., Beauchemin, K., Hunt, D., Bittman, S., Koenig, K.M., McKenzie, D.B. 2019. Prospects of increased dairy farm forage production under climate and land-use changes in Newfoundland, Canada. Agronomy. 9(1):2-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9010031.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9010031

Interpretive Summary: While responsible for less than 1% of the Canadian market sharing quota, Newfoundland is an island and the easternmost region of Canada, which creates unique opportunities for dairy production as a source of locally-produced food. Despite the challenging physiography, there are positive prospects for dairy production in Newfoundland. A warming trend suggests significant long-term benefits for agriculture in the province. There have also been recent initiatives to expand the agricultural land base in the province. Computer simulation of a representative farm in Newfoundland shows that forage needs of the farm can be met in the future through warming climate and minor cropland expansion.

Technical Abstract: Sustainability challenges faced by the dairy industry are intensified in regions where climatic conditions are not favorable for crop production, such as the island of Newfoundland in Canada. Dairy farms in this island are only about 85% self-sufficient in forage production due to low heat unit accumulation and profuse precipitation. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of plausible scenarios of cropland expansion and climate change on forage production at the farm level using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM). Land use scenarios included expansion of 20%, 30%, and 40% in cropland area, out of which 5% was dedicated to corn silage and the remainder to grass-legume mixtures. Future weather under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) were used with the model to represent the near (2020-2049) and distant future (2050-2079). Analysis of weather data indicated an increase in temperature in the recent past and under any future climate scenario, mostly during winter and spring, thus enhancing agronomic performance. Temperature increases ranged from 2.8°C to 5.4°C in winter and from 3.2°C to 6.4°C in spring. Precipitation increases, although relatively small (<10%), create narrower time windows to perform farm operations in the already stringent condition of excess moisture in the region. Expansion of cropland and climate change increased yield (tonnes of dry matter per hectare) and total production (tonnes of dry matter). Improvements in grass-legume yield ranged from 8% for the 40% cropland expansion under RCP 2.6 in the near future to 52% for 40% cropland expansion under RCP 8.5 in the distant future, while production increases ranged from 11% for the current farm cropland (i.e., no expansion) under RCP 2.6 in the near future to 105% for the 40% cropland expansion under RCP 8.5 in the distant future. Increments in corn silage yield ranged from 28% for the 20% cropland expansion under RCP 2.6 in the near future to 69% for 40% cropland expansion under RCP 8.5 in the distant future, while production increases ranged from 29% for the current farm cropland (i.e., no expansion) under RCP 4.5 in the near future to 77% for the 40% cropland expansion under RCP 8.5 in the distant future. A conservative cropland expansion of 20% would be sufficient for the farm to become self-sufficient in the near and distant future under any climate scenario.