|BOOTE, KENNETH - University Of Florida|
|HASEGAWA, TOSHIHIRO - National Agriculture And Food Research Organization (NARO), Agricultrual Research Center|
|LI, TAO - Applied Geosolutions, Llc|
|YIN, XINYOU - Wageningen University And Research Center|
|ZHU, YAN - National Engineering Research Center For Information Technology In Agriculture|
|Allen Jr, Leon|
|SAMUEL, BUIS - French National Institute For Agricultural Research|
|CONFALONIERI, ROBERTO - State University Of Milano|
|FUGICE, JOB - International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC)|
Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/24/2018
Publication Date: 4/24/2018
Citation: Boote, K., Hasegawa, T., Baker, J.T., Li, T., Yin, X., Zhu, Y., Allen Jr, L.H., Samuel, B., Confalonieri, R., Fugice, J. 2018. Testing multiple rice crop models against free-air CO2 enrichment and chamber experiments to improve yield responses to elevated CO2 and temperature.. Meeting Abstract. Presentation. San Jose, Costa Rica, April 24-26, 2018.
Technical Abstract: For irrigated rice production, which accounts for about 75 % of the world production, CO2 and temperature are the primary environmental factors that determine the effects of climate change on productivity. Our initial intercomparison of rice models showed that model predictions under elevated CO2 and temperature vary substantially among crop models. To determine the source of the uncertainty, a total of 16 rice models were tested against observations made in the free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and in the Soil Plant Atmosphere Research (SPAR) chambers. The model ensemble reproduced the observed yield and biomass in FACE and chambers well, but predicted yields in response to elevated [CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to elevated [CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area index, which suggests that modelled secondary effects of elevated [CO2] on morphological development are the sources of model uncertainty. However, the model ensemble failed to reproduce response to elevated temperatures observed in the SPAR chamber experiments: Most models overestimated yields at high temperatures, largely because of failure in simulating reproductive growth, especially grain number or carbon partitioning to the grains, in response to elevated temperatures. The results suggest a strong need for improvement in leaf area development in elevated CO2 and grain number or carbon partitioning in high temperature range.