Location: Food Systems Research Unit
Project Number: 8090-21600-001-011-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Jun 1, 2026
End Date: May 31, 2029
Objective:
Extreme weather patterns are changing access and availability of water for agriculture in the Northeast United States, a region that has traditionally consisted of rain-fed agriculture. Increasing variation in precipitation is introducing challenges for farmers, including providing crops with sufficient water during the growing season and protecting crops from flooding. In this historically water rich region there is a need to understand both how farmers are adapting to changes in water access and availability and the resources and institutional support needed to help farmers adapt.
The overarching goal of this collaboration is to rigorously assess the perspectives of farmers and other land managers in the Northeast United States, specifically in relation to changing water conditions in ground and surface water resources. The University of Maine, the ARS Food Systems Research Group, and the USGS New England Water Science Center have previously collaborated to develop high resolution forecasts as the HUC-12 (small) watershed scale using the Precipitation Runoff Model System (PRMS). Visual maps showing these forecasts depict changing streamflow, snowpack, rainfall, and other indices of water resources that are relevant to farmers in this region. The current project builds upon this past collaboration through four new objectives:
1) Evaluate projected hydrologic metrics of relevance to agricultural stakeholders across six New England states from the output of the USGS PRMS model (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island) based upon current understanding in the literature.
2) Develop a focus group methodology to assess perceived impact and potential adaptations of New England farmers to projected hydrologic metrics.
3) Conduct focus groups across six New England States (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island) to assess how hydrologic information influences land manager intentions to (a) conserve water resources, (b) invest in irrigation technology or develop new water sources for agricultural use, or (c) use private or public resources in other ways to manage water.
4) Assess the relationship between projected hydrologic impacts and farmer perceptions, adaptations, and institutional support needs.
Completing these investigations will provide a better understanding of how to support the Northeast food system in coming decades, as demand for water resources increases and competition between user groups is likely to intensify. By better understanding how variable water supplies intersect with agricultural decision making, regional planning, and food system sustainability, we can supply the scientifically grounded information that policy makers and municipalities need to enact tailored and sustainable water resources management.
Approach:
Phase 1: We will evaluate the relevance of spatially explicit water-related forecasts developed through application of the PRMS model to HUC-12 watershed units in New England. This will entail a detailed literature review and authorship of a scholarly publication that reviews how model output is relevant to agricultural water use decisions and regional planning. First, the Cooperator and Agency will collaborate to develop a hierarchy of water indices included in the PRMS model output; indices included in this stage will be of key relevance to agricultural systems. We will additionally conduct a systematic literature review for peer-reviewed publication.
Phase 2: Next, the Cooperator and the Agency will develop protocols for a focus-group based study. The goal of the study will be to assess perceived impact and potential adaptations of New England farmers to projected hydrologic metrics. The Cooperator and the Agency will utilize the hierarchy of water indices from the PRMS model output to identify study regions of interest, including those that feature future anticipated conditions to be very different, somewhat different, or not different from future conditions. Within these stratified study locations of interest, the Cooperator and the Agency will recruit farmers to participate in the research study.
Phase 3: Conduct focus groups in stratified subregions of the six New England States to assess how hydrologic information influences land manager intentions. The focus group methodology will follow a theory driven protocol to examine farmer perceptions of risk to changing patterns of water access and availability. We will additionally explore how farmer perspectives are (or are not) influenced by high resolution forecasts, technical aspects of various adaptation strategies, and institutional contexts. Focus groups will be conducted in person, recorded, and transcribed for analysis. The focus group data will be analyzed using deductive content analysis to assess the relationship between projected hydrologic impacts and farmer perceptions, adaptations, and institutional support needs. The Cooperator and the Agency will develop a scholarly article for peer-reviewed publication based on the focus group results.