Project Number: 6040-32000-066-066-I
Project Type: Interagency Reimbursable Agreement
Start Date: Apr 1, 2021
End Date: Mar 31, 2026
The aim of this work is to create a predictive phylodynamic model to identify which strains of avian influenza virus (AIV) pose the greatest risk to avian or human populations in the partner countries (USA, UK and China), to test the predictions experimentally, and to enable communication of risk to stakeholders. The work will involve a combination of phylodynamic and statistical modelling, integration of surveillance data, and wet-lab virology, both in vitro and in vivo. The Roslin Institute will lead the phylodynamic modelling and in vitro work, while the United States Department of Agruculture, U.S. National Poultry Research Center, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) facility in Athens, Georgia, will lead the in vivo challenge work. The collaborators at the Chinese Academy of Sciences will lead surveillance and perform in vivo and vitro fitness measurements. Roslin, SEPRL and Chinese Academy of Science will provide molecular virology expertise. Roslin and SEPRL will provide avian immunology expertise. SEPRL will provide expertise in high containment AIV challenges and downstream analyses. Roslin will provide expertise in avian genomics and viral transcriptomics. China provides surveillance/epidemiological expertise. Roslin and China provide modelling/bioinformatics expertise. The proposal aim will be achieved through three work packages (WP) that develop and parameterize (WP1 and 2) the two models, test their outputs and then implement the predictions (WP3).
Work Package 1. Modelling evolution of avian influenza virus (AIV) across scales (Within host). To include Data mining, survelliance, and fitness/landscape modelling to be conducted by the Rosalin Institute and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Work Package 2. Immune driven evolution of AIV. To include influence of innate, adaptive and vaccine immunity on evolution of AIV will be conducted by the Southeast poultry Research Laboratory and the Rosline Institute. Work Package 3. Assessing Risk, Predictions and Science-Policy Interface (Between hosts). To include transmission, risk maps and predicative models. This research will be facilitated by the Rosalin Institute and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.