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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Florence, South Carolina » Coastal Plain Soil, Water and Plant Conservation Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #396512

Research Project: Innovative Technologies and Practices to Enhance Water Quantity and Quality Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Southeastern Coastal Plain

Location: Coastal Plain Soil, Water and Plant Conservation Research

Title: Dependence of rainfed agriculture and drought in the Southeastern United States

item KHEDUN, PRAKASH - Clemson University
item Sohoulande, Clement

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/18/2022
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Meeting Abstract.

Technical Abstract: Rainfed agriculture is vulnerable to drought. Drier conditions, expected as a result of a changing climate, is likely to threaten crop productivity and in turn impact local and state economies. In South Carolina, for example, the forest industry alone suffered a loss of over $1.3 billion during the 1998-2005 drought. Understanding the risk that drought poses to agriculture is a critical step in mitigating the effect of climate change on agriculture. In this study, we use copula to estimate the dependence between drought, represented through the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and four cash crops: corn, cotton, soybeans, and peanuts, in the southern United States. Copulas are an effective way to model the dependence between the two variables because they are distribution independent. Preliminary results show a strong dependence between SPEI and crop productivity. This dependency, however, is not consistent spatially or across crop types. We examine the choice of copula in light of the dependence structure. Using the selected copulas, we simulate changes in crop productivity for different drought scenarios.