Skip to main content
ARS Home » Plains Area » Miles City, Montana » Livestock and Range Research Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #362498
Title: Forum: Critical decision dates for drought management in central and northern Great Plains rangelands

Author
item SMART, ALEXANDER - South Dakota State University
item HARMONEY, KEITH - Kansas State University
item SCASTA, J - University Of Wyoming
item STEPHENSON, MITCHELL - University Of Nebraska
item VOLESKY, JERRY - University Of Nebraska
item Vermeire, Lance
item MOSELY, JEFF - Montana State University
item SEDIVEC, KEVIN - North Dakota State University
item MEEHAN, MIRANDA - North Dakota State University
item HAIGH, TONYA - University Of Nebraska
item Derner, Justin
item MCCLARAN, MITCHEL - University Of Arizona

Submitted to: Rangeland Ecology and Management
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/20/2019
Publication Date: 11/6/2019
Citation: Smart, A.J., Harmoney, K., Scasta, J.D., Stephenson, M.B., Volesky, J.D., Vermeire, L.T., Mosely, J., Sedivec, K., Meehan, M., Haigh, T., Derner, J.D., McClaran, M.P. 2019. Forum: Critical decision dates for drought management in central and northern Great Plains rangelands. Rangeland Ecology and Management. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2019.09.005.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2019.09.005

Interpretive Summary: Producers and land managers of central and northern Great Plains rangelands face cyclical droughts that negatively influence economic and environmental resources for ranching enterprises. Accurately estimating annual forage production and initiating drought management actions early in the growing season are both critical to minimize financial loss and damage to rangeland soil and plant resources. Long-term forage production data sets from Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming demonstrated precipitation in April, May, and June (or some combination of these months) accurately predicted annual forage production. Growth curves from forage clipping experiments in central North Dakota and South Dakota, as well as from ecological site descriptions (ESD), indicated monthly forage growth rates maximize one month after the best monthly spring precipitation. Finally, the probability of receiving enough precipitation in the summer to make up for earlier spring precipitation deficits is extremely low as demonstrated by data, 30-yr monthly precipitation data sets and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Explorer Tool. In this context, precipitation prediction tools from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and forage prediction by “Grass-Cast” can help land managers develop and implement drought plans for critical forage production related decision dates occurring in the months of April, May, and June in the central and northern Great Plains.

Technical Abstract: Producers and land managers of central and northern Great Plains rangelands face cyclical droughts that negatively influence economic and environmental resources for ranching enterprises. Accurately estimating annual forage production and initiating drought management actions early in the growing season are both critical to minimize financial loss and damage to rangeland soil and plant resources. Long-term forage production data sets from Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming demonstrated precipitation in April, May, and June (or some combination of these months) accurately predicted annual forage production. Growth curves from forage clipping experiments in central North Dakota and South Dakota, as well as from ecological site descriptions (ESD), indicated monthly forage growth rates maximize one month after the best monthly spring precipitation. Finally, the probability of receiving enough precipitation in the summer to make up for earlier spring precipitation deficits is extremely low as demonstrated by data, 30-yr monthly precipitation data sets and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Explorer Tool. In this context, precipitation prediction tools from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and forage prediction by “Grass-Cast” can help land managers develop and implement drought plans for critical forage production related decision dates occurring in the months of April, May, and June in the central and northern Great Plains.