Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database

Authors: VAN LINGEN, HENK - University Of California, Davis; NIU, MUTIAN - University Of California, Davis; KEBREAB, ERMIAS - University Of California, Davis; VALADARES FILHO, SEBASTIAO - Universidade Federal De Vicosa; ROOKE, JOHN - Sruc-Scotland'S Rural College; DUTHIE, CAROL-ANNE - Sruc-Scotland'S Rural College; SCHWARM, ANGELA - Eth Zurich; KREUZER, MICHAEL - Eth Zurich; HYND, PHIL - University Of Adelaide; CAETANO, MARIANA - University Of Adelaide; EUGENE, MAGUY - Vetagro Sup; MARTIN, CECILE - Vetagro Sup; MCGEE, MARK - Teagasc (AGRICULTURE AND FOOD DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY); O'KIELY, PADRAIG - Teagasc (AGRICULTURE AND FOOD DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY); HUNERBURG, MARTIN - University Of Alberta; MCALLISTER, TIM - Lethbridge Research Center; BERCHIELLI, TELMA - Sao Paulo State University (UNESP); MESSANA, JULIANA - Sao Paulo State University (UNESP); PEIREN, NICO - Flanders Research Institute For Agriculture; CHAVES, ALEX - University Of Sydney; CHARMLEY, ED - Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); COLE, ANDY - Retired ARS Employee; Hales Paxton, Kristin; LEE, SANG-SUK - Suncheon National University; BERNDT, ALEXANDRE - Embrapa; REYNOLDS, CHRISTOPHER - University Of Reading; CROMPTON, LES - University Of Reading; BAYAT, ALI-REZA - Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE); YANEZ-RUIZ, DAVID - Estaciòn Experimental Aula Dei- Csic; YU, ZHONGTANG - The Ohio State University; BANNINK, ANDRE - Wageningen University And Research Center; DIJKSTRA, JAN - Wageningen University And Research Center; CASPER, DAVID - Furst-Mcness Company; HRISTOV, ALEXANDER - Pennsylvania State University

Submitted to: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/10/2019
Publication Date: 11/1/2019
Citation: Van Lingen, H.J., Niu, M., Kebreab, E., Valadares Filho, S.C., Rooke, J.A., Duthie, C., Schwarm, A., Kreuzer, M., Hynd, P.I., Caetano, M., Eugene, M., Martin, C., McGee, M., O'Kiely, P., Hunerburg, M., McAllister, T.A., Berchielli, T.T., Messana, J.D., Peiren, N., Chaves, A.V., Charmley, E., Cole, N.A., Hales Paxton, K.E., Lee, S., Berndt, A., Reynolds, C.K., Crompton, L.A., Bayat, A., Yanez-Ruiz, D.R., Yu, Z., Bannink, A., Dijkstra, J., Casper, D.P., Hristov, A.N. 2019. Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 283:106575. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2019.106575.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2019.106575

Interpretive Summary: Greenhouse gas emissions are thought to be a contributor to increasing global temperatures and shifts in climate worldwide. Beef cattle enteric methane production is thought to contribute global greenhouse gas emissions. Robust models are needed to reliably estimate beef cattle methane emissions. However, reliable models require data from cattle under different management systems worldwide. Therefore ARS scientists from Bushland TX and Clay Center, NE joined with numerous scientists worldwide to develop a global database of methane production by beef cattle and predict methane production under different management schemes. A relatively simple model was better than more complex and Europe-specific models. Evaluation of current Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change models indicated revised methane emission conversion factors for feedlot and non-feedlot cattle will improve methane production estimates globally. These results are of interest to animal scientists and producers, and climatologists.

Technical Abstract: Beef cattle enteric methane (CH4) production contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Robust model development is necessary to reliably estimate beef cattle CH4 emissions as measurements of enteric CH4 are complex and expensive. However, reliable models require extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to 1) collate a global database of enteric CH4 production in beef cattle; 2) predict CH4 production (g/d per cow), yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)] and intensity (g/kg average daily gain); 3) assess the impact of geographic location, feedlot and non-feedlot diets on prediction of CH4 production, yield, and intensity equations; 4) assess the trade-off between availability of on-farm inputs and CH4 prediction accuracy. The global database covered a broad variety of dietary forage percentages originating from Europe, North America, South America and Australia. Linear mixed models were developed by incrementally adding covariates. Prediction equations based on only DMI fitted to data that contained all forage percentages had root mean square prediction error as a percentage of mean observed value (RMSPE) of 33.5, 31.2, and 46.0% for the entire database, dietary forage percentage > 30%, and dietary forage percentage = 30%, respectively. Predicting CH4 with only DMI using data with forage percentages < 30% had 29.7% of RMSPE, whereas the same prediction based on dietary forage percentage = 30% had 26.2% of RMSPE. These RMSPE values indicated splitting the dataset into a high and low forage subset predicted CH4 production more accurately. More complex and Europe specific models did not substantially improve the prediction, neither did high and low forage subsets for CH4 yield and intensity. Evaluation of current Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change models indicated revised CH4 emission conversion factors for feedlot and non-feedlot cattle improve CH4 production estimates in national inventories.