Vulnerability of irrigated agriculture to a drier future in New Mexico's Mesilla and Rincon Valleys

Authors: SAMIMI, MARYAM - Oklahoma State University; MIRCHI, ALI - Oklahoma State University; GUTZLER, DAVID - University Of New Mexico; TAGHVAEIAN, SALEH - Oklahoma State University; SHENG, ZHUPING - Texas A&M Agrilife; GRANADOS-OLIVAS, ALFREDO - Autonomous University "benito Juárez" Of Oaxaca; Moriasi, Daniel; ALIAN, SARA - Oklahoma State University; HARGROVE, WILLIAM - University Of Texas - El Paso

Submitted to: Grazinglands Research Laboratory Miscellaneous Publication
Publication Type: Book / Chapter
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/1/2022
Publication Date: 6/13/2022
Citation: Samimi, M., Mirchi, A., Gutzler, D., Taghvaeian, S., Sheng, Z., Granados-Olivas, A., Moriasi, D.N., Alian, S., Hargrove, W. 2022. Vulnerability of irrigated agriculture to a drier future in New Mexico's Mesilla and Rincon Valleys. In: Olivas, A.G., editor. Hydrological Resources in the Transboundary Basins between Mexico and the United States: El Paso Del Norte and the Binational Water Governance. Ciudad Juarez, Chih., Mexico: Universidad Autonoma de Ciudad Juarez. p.20-26.

Interpretive Summary: Plausible climate projections and historical declining trend of river flow point to a higher risk of dry future for the study area. Results of this study showed that the current agricultural practices would be quite vulnerable to a future warm-dry scenario with severe droughts. Long-term droughts could lead to major crop losses as the fresh groundwater resources are depleted under more pressure. This exacerbates the vulnerability of agriculture sector, especially the high value pecan orchards in a way that common practices in the region to reduce water consumption by unregulated deficit irrigation or removing some crops during the drought period might not adequately address in the future. It is critical now to plan for more aggressive water conservation measures to reduce water loss, use saline water through desalination, and cultivate more drought- and salt-tolerant crops in New Mexico's Mesilla and Rincon Valleys. Detailed field studies are required on applicability of different types of deficit irrigation, cultivating pistachio and pomegranate in the area with different irrigation methods, soil salinity changes, application of saline water for irrigation, and interaction of surface water and groundwater under different irrigation intervention scenarios to inform adaptive agricultural water management in the region.

Technical Abstract: Plausible climate projections and historical declining trend of river flow point to a higher risk of dry future for the study area. Results of this study showed that the current agricultural practices would be quite vulnerable to a future warm-dry scenario with severe droughts. Long-term droughts could lead to major crop losses as the fresh groundwater resources are depleted under more pressure. This exacerbates the vulnerability of agriculture sector, especially the high value pecan orchards in a way that common practices in the region to reduce water consumption by unregulated deficit irrigation or removing some crops during the drought period might not adequately address in the future. It is critical now to plan for more aggressive water conservation measures to reduce water loss, use saline water through desalination, and cultivate more drought- and salt-tolerant crops in New Mexico's Mesilla and Rincon Valleys. Detailed field studies are required on applicability of different types of deficit irrigation, cultivating pistachio and pomegranate in the area with different irrigation methods, soil salinity changes, application of saline water for irrigation, and interaction of surface water and groundwater under different irrigation intervention scenarios to inform adaptive agricultural water management in the region.