Submitted to: Journal of Economic Entomology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/6/2018
Publication Date: 3/8/2018
Citation: Wakie, T., Yee, W.L., Neven, L.G. 2018. Assessing the risk of global establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae), with emphasis on the United States. Journal of Economic Entomology. 111(3):1275-1284. https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toy054.
Interpretive Summary: The European cherry fruit fly (ECFF) is a destructive pest of cherries in Europe and Asia. The pest was detected for the first time in Canada in 2016, and in the U.S in 2017. Its further expansion could threaten the tree fruit industry in the U.S., including the major cherry-growing regions of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California. Personnel at the USDA Temperate Tree Fruit and Vegetable Research Unit in Wapato, Washington used ecological niche models to determine the risk of global establishment ECFF, focusing on the major cherry-growing regions of the U.S. Results show that under a no-irrigation scenario, ECFF would establish in the East and West Coasts of the U.S; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results stress the importance of surveying for ECFF to prevent its spread and establishment globally and in the U.S.
Technical Abstract: The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, U.S.A., the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the U.S. Establishment of R. cerasi in the U.S. could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control. It is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in cherry-growing regions of California, which currently is free of Rhagoletis flies attacking cherries. Here, we used the ecological niche model CLIMEX to determine the risk of global establishment of R. cerasi, with emphasis on the U.S. Results showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, Canada, and the U. S. Within the U.S. under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Host plant presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment globally and in the U.S.