|ZHU, H - CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES|
|KUMAR, S - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY|
Submitted to: Journal of Insect Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/15/2017
Publication Date: 9/27/2017
Citation: Zhu, H., Kumar, S., Neven, L.G. 2017. Codling moth establishment in China: Stages of invasion and potential future distribution. Journal of Insect Science. 17(4):85. https://doi.org/10.1093/jisesa/iex054.
Interpretive Summary: Codling moth is a serious pest of cultivated apples worldwide. In China, this pest was first identified as an invasive species in the late 1950's. Since that time it has spread to many other counties within the country. Scientists at the USDA-ARS laboratory in Wapato, WA collaborated with scientists at USDA-APHIS in Raleigh, NC and the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, to map the spread of this economically important pest and to develop predictive maps to identify those areas most at risk of future establishment and spread. This research was based off of previous research predicting the global risk of codling moth spread. This study of codling moth spread and establishment in China over the past 60 years provided an opportunity to test the use of ecological niche models to help stem the spread of other invasive species in other countries.
Technical Abstract: Codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) is an internal feeding pest of apples and can cause substantial economic losses to fruit growers due to larval feeding which in turn degrades fruit quality and can result in complete crop loss if left uncontrolled. Although this pest originally developed in central Asia, it was not known to occur in China until 1953. For the first three decades the spread of codling moth within China was slow. Within the last three decades, addition of new commercial apple orchards and improved transportation, this pest has spread to over 131 counties in seven provinces in China. We developed regional (China) and global ecological niche models using MaxEnt to identify areas at highest potential risk of codling moth establishment and spread. Our objectives were to (1) predict the potential distribution of codling moth in China, (2) identify the important environmental factors associated with codling moth distribution in China, and (3) identify the different stages of invasion of codling moth in China. Human footprint, annual temperature range, precipitation of wettest quarter, and degree days =10°C were the most important predictors associated with codling moth distribution. Our analysis identified areas where codling moth has the potential to establish, and mapped the different stages of invasion (i.e. potential for population stabilization, colonization, adaptation, and sink) of codling moth in China. Our results can be used in effective monitoring and management to stem the spread of codling moth in China.