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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Grazinglands Research Laboratory » Agroclimate and Natural Resources Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #331601

Research Project: ADAPTING SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF A CHANGING CLIMATE

Location: Agroclimate and Natural Resources Research

Title: Evaluation of downscaled daily precipitation for FIELD scale hydrologic applications

Author
item Gyawali, Rabi
item Garbrecht, Jurgen
item Zhang, Xunchang

Submitted to: ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/21/2016
Publication Date: 11/6/2016
Citation: Gyawali, R., Garbrecht, J.D., Zhang, X.J. 2016. Evaluation of downscaled daily precipitation for FIELD scale hydrologic applications [abstract]. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, Resilience Emerging from Scarcity and Abundance, November 6-9, 2016, Phoenix, Arizona. Available: https://scisoc.confex.com/scisoc/2016am/webprogram/Paper102017.html.

Interpretive Summary: Abstract only.

Technical Abstract: Hydrologic and agronomic applications often require a reliable representation of precipitation sequence as well as physical consistency of precipitation series for climate change impact assessment. Herein, we evaluate the daily sequence of the state –of –art downscaled Bias Corrected Constructed Analogue (BCCA) precipitation hind-casts to determine their suitability to study daily soil moisture dynamics at the field-scale for central Oklahoma climatic conditions. Three daily precipitation data sets were considered: (i) the 1961-1999 BCCA precipitation hind-casts for a 12 km grid in central Oklahoma; (ii) the 1961-1999 spatially interpolated daily precipitation data used in the BCCA downscaling procedure; (iii) the 1961-1999 observed daily precipitation observations at the Weatherford COOP weather station located within the 12 km BCCA grid. The BCCA daily precipitation hind-casts showed a larger number of rainy days, lower rainfall amounts per rainy day, and longer sequences of consecutive rainy-day clusters than found in observations. These differences were large enough to suggest that BCCA daily precipitation hind-casts may not reflect the characteristics of actual precipitation observations at a point location, i.e. weather station. The underlying cause for the noted differences was traced back to the differences in spatial scales of the BCCA outputs and observed daily precipitation at a station. Thus, caution is advised to end users using BCCA daily rainfall projections directly in local and field-scale water investigations, particularly for applications requiring reliable representation of precipitation sequence. Alternatively, a statistical downscaling method based on stochastic weather generation that includes wet-day dry-day transition probabilities would provide the desired temporal disaggregation and sequencing of daily rainfall events.