|GALDINO, TARCISIO - UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VICOSA|
|KUMAR, SUNIL - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY|
|OLIVEIRA, LEONARDO - UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VICOSA|
|ALFENAS, ACELINO - UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VICOSA|
|AL-SADI, ABDULLAH - SULTAN QABOOS UNIVERSITY|
|PICANCO, MARCELO - UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VICOSA|
Submitted to: PLOS ONE
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/6/2016
Publication Date: 7/14/2016
Citation: Galdino, T., Kumar, S., Oliveira, L., Alfenas, A., Neven, L.G., Al-Sadi, A., Picanco, M. 2016. Mapping global potential risk of mango sudden decline disease caused by fungus Ceratocystis fimbriata. PLoS One. 11(7):e0159450.
Interpretive Summary: Mango Sudden Decline (MSD) is a serious fungal disease of mangoes and can decrease mango yields and eventually lead to the death of the tree. This disease is spread by the mango bark beetle and from contaminated soils. The best method to control this disease is to prevent the fungus from spreading in mango production areas. Scientists at the USDA-ARS, Colorado State University and the Universidade Federal de Viçosa in Brazil collaborated to develop ecological niche models to predict the potential global distribution of MSD, identify mango growing regions at risk of MSD establishment, and identify the climates that favor MSD fungal growth and establishment of the mango bark beetle. This study produced the first map of established MSD disease and those areas at risk of MSD invasion. This information can be used to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD and may aid other countries in developing procedures to protect against this deleterious plant disease.
Technical Abstract: Mango Sudden Decline (MSD), sometimes referred to as mango wilt, is an important disease of mango caused by one of the most significant fungal species causing disease in woody plants, Ceratocystis fimbriata. This species is mainly disseminated by the mango bark beetle, Hypocryphalus mangiferae (Stebbing), and the infested soils where it is able to survive for long periods. The best way to prevent losses due to MSD is to prevent its establishment in mango production areas. Therefore, our objectives in this study were to: (1) predict the global potential distribution of MSD, (2) identify the mango growing areas that are under potential risk of MSD establishment, and (3) identify climatic factors associated with MSD distribution. Occurrence records were collected from three countries where the disease is currently known to occur in mango. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model (MaxEnt) algorithm to assess the global potential distribution of MSD. The MaxEnt model predicted suitable areas in countries where the disease does not already occur in mango, but where mango is grown. Among these areas are the largest mango producers in the world including India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico. The vector mango bark beetle is known to occur beyond the locations where MSD currently occurs and where the model predicted suitable areas, thus showing a high likelihood for disease establishment in areas predicted by our model. Our study is the first to map the potential risk of MSD establishment at global scale. This information can be used in designing strategies to prevent introduction and establishment of MSD disease, and in preparation of efficient Pest Risk Assessment and monitoring programs by mango producing countries