Submitted to: Grazinglands Research Laboratory Miscellaneous Publication
Publication Type: Research Notes
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/1/2013
Publication Date: 7/1/2013
Citation: Garbrecht, J.D., Zhang, X.J., Busteed, P.R. 2013. Report on the projected future climate of the Fort Cobb Watershed, Oklahoma. Grazinglands Research Laboratory Miscellaneous Publication. Available: http://iapreview.ars.usda.gov/main/site_main.htm?modecode=62-18-05-20. Interpretive Summary: Abstract Only
Technical Abstract: This report provides technical information on projected climate change and associated monotonic trends of precipitation and air temperature at the ARS Fort Cobb Experimental Watershed in west-central Oklahoma. The report is an attachment to the full report of the multi-location project MLP 464: “Estimating impacts of projected climate change on regional water availability and quality, across diverse physiographic regions in the United States, and their associated implications for conservation needs and agricultural productivity”. The projected climate change information in this report serves as the basis for making inferences about potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology, natural resources, and agricultural productivity of the regions represented by the ARS experimental watersheds. Based on historical (observed) climate data and climate projections, annual precipitation of the Fort Cobb Watershed was not expected to change much over the 21st century for each of the three greenhouse gas emission scenarios studied. Annual air temperature of the Fort Cobb Watershed was expected to increase over the 21st century. Average trend of annual temperature projections over the 2011-2100 time period was 0.51, 0.36, and 0.19 [oC/dc] for the high, middle and low emission scenario, respectively. Projected air temperature increases were higher during the summer and autumn (May through October) than during the winter and spring. Precipitation departures from current climate normals due to climate change were not correlated with corresponding departures in air temperature. Overall, climate change in west-central Oklahoma over the 21st century is anticipated to be primarily in the form of a rise in air temperature for all calendar months with minimal change in annual and seasonal precipitation.