Location: Horticultural Crops Production and Genetic Improvement Research Unit
Project Number: 2072-30500-002-012-A
Project Type: Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Apr 1, 2026
End Date: Mar 31, 2030
Objective:
The objective of this agreement is to improve vineyard-scale wind prediction needed for future assessment of smoke exposure risk to grapes. Wildfire smoke can reduce fruit quality and make grape crops unmarketable, and growers need better vineyard-scale information to assess risk and support management decisions. Because smoke exposure risk can vary within and among vineyard blocks, improved vineyard-scale wind prediction is needed to support more useful exposure assessment. This phase of work will focus on a key limitation in vineyard-scale wind modeling: airflow over irregular vineyard terrain. Specifically, the Cooperator will: (1) develop and test a simplified analytical method to represent how irregular vineyard-relevant hills modify airflow and create sheltered turbulent zones on the downwind side; (2) incorporate this terrain-flow method into the existing vineyard-scale wind modeling framework; (3) evaluate the effect of the terrain improvement on near-surface wind-field prediction accuracy in a vineyard-relevant test domain; and (4) prepare code updates, validation results, and written documentation to support future smoke-exposure applications in vineyards. Because smoke movement depends strongly on local wind flow, improving the model for real vineyard terrain is an essential step toward more reliable vineyard-scale smoke exposure assessment and more useful tools for growers.
Approach:
The Cooperator will apply a vineyard-scale wind downscaling framework that links High-Resolution Rapid Refresh weather-model output with a fast-response wind modeling system operating at 100-m resolution. The Cooperator will develop a simplified terrain-flow representation that captures how irregular hills modify airflow, including wind-speed enhancement over terrain and sheltered turbulent zones on the downwind side. This terrain improvement will be integrated into the existing wind modeling framework and tested in a vineyard-relevant domain with complex terrain and available observational data. Simulated wind fields will be compared against field observations to determine whether the terrain enhancement improves prediction accuracy under conditions relevant to vineyard applications. Results from this work will be used to update the code base, document the model improvement, and prepare technical products that support future smoke-exposure applications and risk assessment in vineyards.