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Research Project: Simulation Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Livestock in the U.S.

Location: Foreign Animal Disease Research

Project Number: 3022-32000-064-016-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Aug 1, 2019
End Date: Jul 31, 2024

The objective of this research project is to contribute to the modeling of outbreak scenarios of FMD virus (FMDV) incursions within the USA. The overarching goal is to improve preparedness to mitigate the impacts of potential FMD outbreaks. The Kansas State University (KSU) Center for Outcomes Research and Epidemiology (CORE) will integrate laboratory data from ARS, PIADC agricultural industry knowledge, and models developed by the Center for Epidmiology and Animal Health (CEAH/APHIS) to generate output from varied disease spread and outbreak response model scenarios. These model outputs will ultimately be analyzed by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and game theoretic methods to evaluate the trade-offs of different disease response decisions made by federal, state, and industry stakeholders and to identify optimal disease response strategies.

1. Kansas State University CORE will provide epidemiological modeling and agricultural industry expertise to ARS, PIADC in the design and execution of iterations of simulations of FMD outbreaks in USA. 2. KSU, ARS, and CEAH will collaborate with the analysis of model outputs and the drafting of novel manuscripts describing the output for submission to peer-reviewed journals. 3. KSU, ARS, and CEAH will collaborate on the development of user-friendly, interactive dashboards that will allow stakeholders to evaluate the results of the analysis and identify optimal FMD control strategies. 4. This work will be accomplished through the efforts of 1 postdoctoral fellow under the supervision of the collaborating PI with support from the ARS PI. 5. Input data and models to be shared with KSU and will include: a. Serological and virological test results. b. Selected outputs generated through collaboration between ARS and CEAH will be provided to KSU. c. Updated models from CEAH will be provided in accordance with CEAH’s policies for sharing and distribution. 6. Scientists from collaborating institutions in endemic countries and other individuals in the field will be trained in epidemiolgoical aspects of FMD infection.