Location: Aerial Application Technology Research
Project Number: 3091-30500-001-006-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Jun 1, 2026
End Date: May 31, 2028
Objective:
The objective of this agreement is to estimate the total economic value of the agricultural aerial application industry in the United States, delineated by crop and by state, considering revenue losses at the farmgate, input supplier, and additional stages of the agricultural value channel in the absence of aerial application services. This work expands prior analyses that evaluated selected crops and limited states by extending the economic assessment to all fifty states and incorporating multiple stages of the agricultural supply chain, including producers, processors, transportation, storage, and other functional market participants. Specific objectives are to expand and refine an existing econometric and simulation-based model to estimate state-level economic impacts of the agricultural aerial application industry across major crops grown within each state, and to quantify the revenue losses that would occur throughout the agricultural value channel if aerial application were no longer available. The resulting model and estimates will provide quantitative decision-support information for aerial applicators, agricultural stakeholders, regulators, and policymakers regarding the economic contribution of aerial application to state and national economies and to U.S. food and fiber security.
Approach:
The cooperator will utilize data obtained from the National Agricultural Aviation Association (NAAA), USDA Economic Research Service, and other relevant economic datasets to expand an existing counterfactual economic framework. Advanced econometric and simulation modeling tools, including risk-based simulation methodologies, will be applied to estimate revenue impacts across multiple stages of the agricultural value channel. The model will evaluate economic losses at the farmgate level, input supplier level, and downstream processing and functional participant levels for major crops grown in each state. The modeling effort will expand prior work by incorporating all fifty states and delineating impacts by crop and by stage of the supply chain. ARS will collaborate in defining modeling assumptions, validating agricultural production parameters, and ensuring alignment with industry operational realities. Model outputs will be synthesized into a comprehensive technical report quantifying the economic value of the agricultural aerial application industry at both state and national levels.