ARS | Publication request: THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON LOCAL INCOMES FROM RANGE LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS

Submitted to: Agricultural Systems
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: June 1, 1995
Publication Date: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Impacts of potential global warming on agriculture have received considerable attention in recent years. We are developing good ideas on how these changes will affect the biology and physiology of plants and animals. We now extend these concepts to investigate the impact of climate change to include individual farm profitability. Several conclusions were drawn from this work. Climate change affects are different for different regions. Our analysis suggested that the northern tier of states would experience increased productivity and profitability for range livestock systems than southern states. In response to this result, a corresponding northward shift in the comparative advantaage of feeder calf production would occur. Subsequently, the logistic cost components of cattle feeding and slaughter may then result in geographic shifts within these industries. Other influences indirectly associated with climate change include depletion of ground water and posssible sale o agricultural water for non-agricultural uses.

Technical Abstract: Using standard census data, an index us devekoped expressing the contribution of rangeland livestock systems to total county incomes. This index is then appllied to results of a simulation of the effects of global warming on the productivity of cow-calf range-livestock systems in the western USA. Range-based incomes in a southern tier of states are predicted to decline. This coupled with increasing productivity in the middle and northern Great Plains, the inter-mountain Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest suggests that significant shifts could occur in the locat ion of feeder-calf production.