Project Number: 6218-11130-003-00
Start Date: Nov 24, 2004
End Date: Nov 23, 2009
Decadal-scale climate variations are identified by a trend analysis of historical climate data published by NOAA's National Climate Data Center, and the utility of seasonal climate forecasts by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are evaluated in terms of forecasted and observed departure from average conditions. Statistical characteristics of climate variations and forecasts are quantified in terms of basic distribution statistics and probability of exceedance curves (POE). Associated weather outcomes are developed using a weather generator, which will drive selected crop and hydrologic models that simulate climatic impacts on forage production and natural resources. Collaborating producers will capture their decision process using a journaling approach which will identify critical decision variables for which POE curves will be developed. The POE curves will reflect the risk and uncertainty of forecasted impacts and represent the basic decision information for decision makers. Two case studies, the management of a fall forage-grazing system in central Oklahoma and water-level regulation for Lake Texoma reservoir, will be used to demonstrate the management potential offered by climate variations and forecasts.