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ARS Home » Plains Area » Las Cruces, New Mexico » Range Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #328527
Title: Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities

Author
item CHU, CHENGJIN - Sun Yat-Sen University
item KLEINHESSELINK, ANDREW - Utah State University
item Havstad, Kris
item MCCLARAN, MITCHEL - University Of Arizona
item Peters, Debra
item Vermeire, Lance
item WEI, HAIYAN - University Of Arizona
item ADLER, PETER - Utah State University

Submitted to: Nature Communications
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/27/2016
Publication Date: 6/15/2016
Publication URL: https://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/5695458
Citation: Chu, C., Kleinhesselink, A., Havstad, K.M., McClaran, M., Peters, D.C., Vermeire, L.T., Wei, H., Adler, P. 2016. Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities. Nature Communications. 7:11766.

Interpretive Summary: Long term research sites in Montana, Idaho, Kansas, Arizona and New Mexico have collected information on plant responses to rainfall and air temperature since the early 1900s. This research project examined how 12 specific rangeland plant species that have been monitored on these 5 research stations responded to rainfall and temperature patterns over 15 to 37 consecutive year periods that encompassed either the extended droughts of the 1930s or the 1950s. These plant species were studied in their natural environment so that plant responses would reflect both climate and competition with other plants. In general, specific plant species growth responses were about 50% each year in direct response to climate and about 50% in response to non-climatic factors, such as plant competition with other plants. Climates across these 5 states are expected to change in coming decades. These rangeland plant species will be directly impacted by climate change.

Technical Abstract: Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, a proxy for niche differences, and quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate change on each species. Consistent with theory, in four of five communities indirect effects are strongest for species showing weak negative frequency dependence. Indirect effects are also stronger in communities where there is greater variation in direct effects. Overall responses to climate perturbations are driven primarily by direct effects, suggesting that single species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate change in these communities.