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ARS Home » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #171339
Title: PREDICTING WINTER WHEAT YIELD FROM TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL

Author
item Nielsen, David
item Halvorson, Ardell
item Vigil, Merle
item BYRNE, PATRICK - COLORADO STATE UNIV

Submitted to: Agronomy Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/29/2004
Publication Date: 10/31/2004
Citation: Nielsen, D.C., Halvorson, A.D., Vigil, M.F., Byrne, P.F. 2004. Predicting winter wheat yield from temperature and rainfall. Agronomy Abstracts. Presented at the 2004 ASA-CSSA-SSSA International Annual Meeting. Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 2004. Seattle, WA

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Winter wheat yields in the central Great Plains are reduced by periods of low rainfall and high temperature. This study quantifies the relative influence of water and high temperature stresses on winter wheat yield using Colorado State University wheat variety trial data from 1990 to 2000. Data from 1992, 1995, and 1997 were excluded due to hail or late frosts. Grain yield was highly correlated with precipitation, number of days with maximum air temperature between 25 and 35 C, and number of days with maximum air temperature greater than 35 C (all three parameters between 21 May and 1 July). The simple regression model was tested against three other data sets collected at Akron, CO. The model predicted yields well for years without significant hail, late frosts, or low soil water at planting. The model is a useful tool for educating producers about the relative impacts on wheat yield of precipitation and high temperature stresses that occur from just before heading until physiological maturity.