Assessing heat stress impacts on cotton yield and revenue: A multilevel regression approach in the Southern U.S.

Authors: ODUNIYI, SAMUEL - Eastern Oregon University; MCCALLISTER, DONNA - Texas Tech University; GAO, LONG - Texas A&M University, Kingsville; BASTOS, LEONARDO - University Of Georgia; JAGADISH SV, KRISHNA - Texas Tech University

Submitted to: Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment (JSAE)
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/10/2025
Publication Date: 5/23/2025
Citation: Oduniyi, S.O., McCallister, D., Gao, L., Bastos, L., Jagadish SV, K. 2025. Assessing heat stress impacts on cotton yield and revenue: A multilevel regression approach in the Southern U.S. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment (JSAE). 4(2). Article e70070. https://doi.org/10.1002/sae2.70070.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/sae2.70070

Interpretive Summary: Heat stress threatens cotton production in the Southern United States, reducing yields and farm revenue. USDA ARS Ogallala Aquifer Program cooperating scientists from Texas and Georgia applied a model to climate and yield data from 1980 to 2018 to examine the heat stress effects on cotton yield. Heat stress appreciably reduced yield and farm income, but the effects could be partially reversed if precipitation or irrigation supplied plentiful water to the crop. Recommended adaptation strategies in the face of increasing temperatures included development of heat tolerant cotton varieties, adjusting crop insurance programs to include climate variables, and adoption of precision agriculture and planting schedules to reduce exposure to heat.

Technical Abstract: Climate change-induced heat stress significantly threatens cotton production in the Southern United States, reducing yields and farm revenue. This study quantifies the impact of rising temperatures using a multilevel regression model applied to historical climate and yield data (1980–2018) from key cotton-growing regions. The analysis examines how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and growing degree days influence yield at different growth stages. Results show that a 1°C increase in maximum temperature during the flowering stage (TmaxGS2) reduces cotton yield by 5.5%, leading to revenue losses of up to $219 per acre. Conversely, higher precipitation during critical growth periods increases yield by 183 lb/acre, partially offsetting heat stress effects. Given these findings, adaptation strategies are essential. We recommend the development of heat-tolerant cotton varieties, improved irrigation management, and expanded financial support programs, including climate-based crop insurance. Additionally, optimizing planting schedules and adopting precision agriculture can help mitigate yield losses. These measures will strengthen the resilience of cotton farming against escalating climate risks, ensuring long-term sustainability. This study provides valuable insights for farmers, policymakers, and researchers working to safeguard cotton production in a changing climate.