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ARS Home » Plains Area » Bushland, Texas » Conservation and Production Research Laboratory » Soil and Water Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #435877
Research Project: Dryland and Irrigated Crop Management Under Limited Water Availability and Drought

Location: Soil and Water Management Research

Title: Meta-analysis to determine the effects of heat stress on cotton yield parameters

Author
item ODUNIYI, SAMUEL - Eastern Oregon University
item MCCALLISTER, DONNA - Texas Tech University
item SOMAYANDA, IMPA - Texas Tech University
item JAGADISH SV, KRISHNA - Texas Tech University

Submitted to: Agronomy Journal
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/11/2025
Publication Date: 12/16/2025
Citation: Oduniyi, S.O., McCallister, D., Somayanda, I., Jagadish SV, K. 2025. Meta-analysis to determine the effects of heat stress on cotton yield parameters. Agronomy Journal. 117(5). Article e70193. https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70193.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70193

Interpretive Summary: Heat stress threatens cotton production in the Southern United States, reducing yields and farm revenue. USDA ARS Ogallala Aquifer Program cooperating scientists from Texas examined the publications on heat stress effects on cotton and applied a modeling approach to discern where heat stress most affects yield. Heat stress appreciably reduced yield in the United States but results for China were less clear. Regional climatic conditions and agronomic practices clearly affect the impact of heat stress on yield, which leads to recommendations to develop agronomic practices that mitigate heat stress effects.

Technical Abstract: There is a growing body of research on the impact of climate change on cotton production, yet limited information exists on the specific effects of heat stress on cotton yield parameters. This study conducted a meta-analysis to quantify the impact of heat stress on key cotton (Gossypium) yield parameters, including lint yield, boll weight, boll number, boll retention, and seed yield. A systematic search across ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Google Scholar yielded 62 articles, of which 43 met the inclusion criteria. Using OpenMEE software, the research applied a random effects model to generate pooled effect estimates at a 95% confidence interval, with subgroup analyses performed to assess variability across key moderators. The results showed a significant overall reduction in all cotton yield parameters due to heat stress. Subgroup analysis revealed that the magnitude of these effects varied depending on factors such as country of study, type of heat stress (day/night and combined), growth stage, and experimental conditions (field vs. controlled environment), with notable heterogeneity. Heat stress significantly reduced cotton lint yield in regions such as the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas China showed no statistically significant effect. These findings underscore the importance of regional climatic conditions and agronomic practices in influencing cotton’s response to heat stress. Consequently, further investigation is recommended in regions where significant reductions were observed and in areas with limited empirical data. Expanding research on long-term adaptation strategies, such as heat-tolerant cultivars and optimized management practices, will be critical for mitigating heat stress impacts on cotton production.