Genetic Gain of Lint Yield in Modern Upland Cotton Cultivars Based on National Cotton Variety Tests

Authors: Zeng, Linghe; Wu, Jixiang; BOURLAND, FRED - University Of Arkansas; Campbell, Benjamin; DEVER, JANE - Clemson University; DUDAK, JENNIFER - Oklahoma State University; EDMISTEN, KEITH - North Carolina State University; HAGUE, STEVE - Auburn State University; HAND, LAVESTA - University Of Georgia; JONES, MICHAEL - Clemson University; KELLY, CAROL - Texas A&M University; MCKNIGHT, BENJAMIN - Texas A&M University; MORGAN, VALERIE - Texas A&M University; PIERALISI, BRIAN - Mississippi State University; RAPER, TYSON - University Of Tennessee; Thompson, Alison; SMITH, WAYNE - Texas A&M University; WILSON, BRADLEY - University Of Missouri; ZHANG, JINFA - New Mexico State University

Submitted to: Crop Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/10/2025
Publication Date: 11/26/2025
Citation: Zeng, L., Wu, J., Bourland, F.M., Campbell, B.T., Dever, J.K., Dudak, J., Edmisten, K., Hague, S., Hand, L.C., Jones, M., Kelly, C., Mcknight, B., Morgan, V., Pieralisi, B., Raper, T.B., Thompson, A.L., Smith, W., Wilson, B., Zhang, J. 2025. Genetic Gain of Lint Yield in Modern Upland Cotton Cultivars Based on National Cotton Variety Tests. Crop Science. 65:e70192. DOI:10.1002/csc2.70192.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/csc2.70192

Interpretive Summary: Yield is a top priority among the goals for cultivar improvement in cotton breeding. However, in recent years, the list of goals has markedly changed. Improvement of fiber quality became more important due to increasing demand from the textile industry for high quality fibers to meet greater requirements for high-speed spinning. In this century, Genetically Modified (GM) cotton is planted on the majority of U.S. cotton acreages. In this study, we investigated fiber yield of modern cotton cultivars planted in the U.S. Cotton Belt since 1998 using National Cotton Variety Test (NCVT) that has been planted at many locations across the cotton growing region for 64 years. Analyzing this historical data, showed that U.S. cotton yield increased by 24.7 kilogram / hectare per year between 1998 and 2014 and decreased -1.4 kilogram / hectare per year between 2015 and 2022. The yield plateau after 2015 suggested a compromise in yield when multiple traits were transferred (stacked) into new commercial cultivars to allow easier insect and weed control. To have new cotton cultivars with high yield and improved fiber quality as well as these stacked traits, new breeding technologies and analysis methods are needed to bring all these traits together in one successful cultivar.

Technical Abstract: High lint yield in Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)is no longer the sole breeding priority due to the increasing requirements for high fiber quality from the textile industry. To identify the trend in genetic gain for lint yield as breeding priorities changed in the U.S., it is essential to evaluate the genetic gain of lint yield over time for modern cotton cultivars planted in recent history. The National Cotton Variety Tests (NCVT), conducted since the 1960s, included Upland cotton cultivars, and since the 1990s, has included both conventional cotton and transgenic cotton tested annually at locations across the U.S. Cotton Belt. These NCVT data from 1998 to 2022 for commercial cultivars, including transgenic cultivars, were used to analyze lint yield trends during this period. The annual yield means were adjusted based on overlapped entries between testing years to minimize environmental influence during the long-term trials for genetic gain, which was estimated from regression of the adjusted annual means over testing years. Results showed that genetic gain of lint yield was 24.1 kg ha-1 yr-1 during the 25-year period. When the long period was split into two segments, i.e., 1998 to 2014 and 2015 to 2022, the genetic gains were 24.7 kg ha-1 yr-1 and -1.3 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively. The yield trend of increasing before 2015 and plateauing after 2015 coincides with the trend of stacking technology advancement in development of transgenic cultivars. This coincidence reflects the early success of introgression technologies by seed companies with cotton yields increasing during the 2000s and the middle of 2010s. The yield plateau suggests the necessity pyramiding (stacking) multiple genes more recently will require breakthroughs in breeding methods and biotechnologies to develop transgenic cotton cultivars with all the traits as well as increased yield and improved fiber quality.