Incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle: Experimental evidence and simulated impacts

Authors: STENFELDT, CAROLINA - Kansas State University; Humphreys Jr, John; Arzt, Jonathan

Submitted to: Scientific Reports
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 12/24/2025
Publication Date: 1/7/2026
Citation: Stenfeldt, C., Humphreys Jr, J.M., Arzt, J. 2026. Incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle: Experimental evidence and simulated impacts. Scientific Reports. 16. Article 4023. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34132-x.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34132-x

Interpretive Summary: The ability of a disease to transmit before there are any clinical signs of infection can have dramatic effects on disease spread. This paper describes a study that demonstrated that foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) could spread from infected cattle, at least 24 hours before the animals became sick. Statistical modeling was used to demonstrate how this "incubation phase transmission" would substantially impact the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the U.S. cattle population, leading to a 34% increase in affected farms compared to a scenario in which only animals that were clinically sick could transmit disease.

Technical Abstract: The capacity of any pathogen to transmit from infected hosts prior to the development of clinical disease substantially impacts the ability to effectively control an outbreak. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is known for its rapid spread and ability to cause severe disease outbreaks amongst susceptible livestock species. In this current investigation, it was demonstrated that cattle infected with FMDV were capable of transmitting infection at least 24h prior to the development of clinical signs. Additionally, the progression of infection in cattle exposed to infected donors during the early infectious phase was slower than in cattle exposed at later time points, suggesting a dose-dependent effect on infection dynamics in contact-exposed cattle. To quantify the impact, outcomes from the transmission experiment were used to parameterize agent-based simulations at three biological levels, within-host, within-herd, and between-farm. Simulations revealed that outbreaks spread more rapidly and infect more cattle and farms when models account for preclinical transmission. Specifically, including pre-clinical transmission in a between-farm simulation resulted in a 33.7% increase in the number of affected farms, demonstrating that incubation phase infectiousness has important implications for outbreak preparedness and response.