Drivers of emerging transboundary dust hazards across the US-Mexico border

Authors: DHITAL, SAROJ - New Mexico State University; Webb, Nicholas; GILL, THOMAS - University Of Texas - El Paso; LANGFORD, RICHARD - University Of Texas - El Paso; GRANADOS-OLIVAS, ALFREDO - Universidad Autonoma De Ciudad Juarez; DOMINGUEZ-ACOSTA, MIGUEL - Universidad Autonoma De Ciudad Juarez; KAPLAN, MICHAEL - Desert Research Institute

Submitted to: American Geophysical Union Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/1/2025
Publication Date: 12/19/2025
Citation: Dhital, S., Webb, N.P., Gill, T.E., Langford, R., Granados-Olivas, A., Dominguez-Acosta, M., Kaplan, M.L. 2025. Drivers of emerging transboundary dust hazards across the US-Mexico border. American Geophysical Union Meeting Abstract. Abstract.

Interpretive Summary: Transboundary dust events can have extensive impacts on society and are challenging to address due to differences in land tenure, water rights and use, and their governance across source areas. In March 2025, following 2024 extreme drought, an anomalously large number of dust events formed in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, impacting communities living across Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, El-Paso, Texas, and southern New Mexico. The frequency in March 2025 was the highest recorded in the last 80 years, following only the 1930s Dust Bowl. Anticipating prolonged drought across the region, there is an urgent need to elucidate the drivers of increased dust activity. As wind and land cover conditions primarily control dust events, in this study we examined 1) how wind conditions were different in Spring 2025 from historical patterns, and 2) recent land cover trends across the northern Chihuahuan Desert that could influence the magnitude and frequency of dust events. To this end, we used reanalysis data, remote sensing products, and locally available data to assess spatial patterns and trends in meteorological and land cover controls. We identified positive near-surface wind anomalies, conducive to dust mobilization, across the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Intensified Subtropical jet stream over the northern Chihuahuan Desert in spring 2025, due to an anomalously warm Eastern Pacific Ocean, Offshore of California, resulted in strong upper-level divergence, low-level pressure gradient, and stronger-than-normal near-surface winds. Between 2001 and 2023, agriculture in the Janos and Ascension regions of Mexico, and Hidalgo County in New Mexico, expanded by ~3 to 5 times. Simultaneously, during 2011-2020, perennial forb and grass cover in the northern Chihuahuan Desert declined while woody cover increased significantly. Exposed land due to the agricultural expansion and declining perennial cover was collocated with the strong winds of Spring 2025, resulting in high dust event frequency. Our results provide insights into how agricultural expansion and regional vegetation changes across the northern Chihuahuan Desert resulted in increased transboundary dust events. Cross-border coordination is needed urgently to mitigate future dust events in the source areas and associated hazards over downwind communities.

Technical Abstract: Transboundary dust events can have extensive impacts on society and are challenging to address due to differences in land tenure, water rights and use, and their governance across source areas. In March 2025, following 2024 extreme drought, an anomalously large number of dust events formed in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, impacting communities living across Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, El-Paso, Texas, and southern New Mexico. The frequency in March 2025 was the highest recorded in the last 80 years, following only the 1930s Dust Bowl. Anticipating prolonged drought across the region, there is an urgent need to elucidate the drivers of increased dust activity. As wind and land cover conditions primarily control dust events, in this study we examined 1) how wind conditions were different in Spring 2025 from historical patterns, and 2) recent land cover trends across the northern Chihuahuan Desert that could influence the magnitude and frequency of dust events. To this end, we used reanalysis data, remote sensing products, and locally available data to assess spatial patterns and trends in meteorological and land cover controls. We identified positive near-surface wind anomalies, conducive to dust mobilization, across the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Intensified Subtropical jet stream over the northern Chihuahuan Desert in spring 2025, due to an anomalously warm Eastern Pacific Ocean, Offshore of California, resulted in strong upper-level divergence, low-level pressure gradient, and stronger-than-normal near-surface winds. Between 2001 and 2023, agriculture in the Janos and Ascension regions of Mexico, and Hidalgo County in New Mexico, expanded by ~3 to 5 times. Simultaneously, during 2011-2020, perennial forb and grass cover in the northern Chihuahuan Desert declined while woody cover increased significantly. Exposed land due to the agricultural expansion and declining perennial cover was collocated with the strong winds of Spring 2025, resulting in high dust event frequency. Our results provide insights into how agricultural expansion and regional vegetation changes across the northern Chihuahuan Desert resulted in increased transboundary dust events. Cross-border coordination is needed urgently to mitigate future dust events in the source areas and associated hazards over downwind communities.