Computationally modeling the physiological impact of the ratio of fats to carbohydrates in the diet on intake among metabolically healthy adults

Authors: MARTINEZ, MARIE - City University Of New York; HENEGHAN, JESSIE - City University Of New York; WEATHERWAX, COLLEEN - City University Of New York; MORAN, TIMOTHY - Johns Hopkins School Of Public Health; BURTON-FREEMAN, BRIT - Illinois Institute Of Technology; VELMURUGAN, KAVYA - City University Of New York; ORDOVAS, JOSE - Jean Mayer Human Nutrition Research Center On Aging At Tufts University; BARTSCH, SARAH - City University Of New York; SHAH, TEJ - City University Of New York; LEE, JENNIFER - Jean Mayer Human Nutrition Research Center On Aging At Tufts University; BOOTH, SARAH - Jean Mayer Human Nutrition Research Center On Aging At Tufts University; KLEINBERG, SAMANTHA - Stevens Institute Of Technology; CHIN, KEVIN - City University Of New York; DE LA HAYE, KAYLA - University Of Southern California; DIBBS, ALEXIS - City University Of New York; SCANNELL, SHERYL - City University Of New York; LEE, BRUCE - City University Of New York

Submitted to: Current Developments in Nutrition
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/4/2025
Publication Date: 7/1/2025
Citation: Martinez, M.F., Heneghan, J., Weatherwax, C., Moran, T.H., Burton-Freeman, B., Velmurugan, K., Ordovas, J.M., Bartsch, S.M., Shah, T.D., Lee, J., Booth, S.L., Kleinberg, S., Chin, K.L., De La Haye, K., Dibbs, A., Scannell, S.A., Lee, B.Y. 2025. Computationally modeling the physiological impact of the ratio of fats to carbohydrates in the diet on intake among metabolically healthy adults. Current Developments in Nutrition. 9(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cdnut.2025.107487.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cdnut.2025.107487

Interpretive Summary: When it comes to how effectively a diet can help reduce or maintain body weight, a key question is how that diet affects a person's hunger, satiety, and subsequent eating. To start to answer this question, we developed a computational simulation model to assess the physiological responses of varying the relative ratio of energy from fats:carbohydrates in a metabolically healthy person's diet. Future research will involve expanding the model to include additional factors such as physical activity.

Technical Abstract: Background: When it comes to how effectively a diet can help reduce or maintain body weight, a key question is how that diet affects a person's hunger, satiety, and subsequent eating. Objective: Modeling, from a physiological perspective, how varying the ratio of fats to carbohydrates in a diet impacts hunger, satiety, and subsequent eating among metabolically healthy adults. Methods: We developed a model representing an adult, their dietary intake, gastrointestinal tract, hunger/satiety levels, and meal consumption. We simulated agents eating fixed ratios of macronutrients and measured their subsequent eating over 24 hours driven by physiological responses. Results: When increasing the proportion of energy from fats relative to carbohydrates, daily calories decrease by on average 149 and 110 calories per 10% increase in fats for males and females, respectively. Additionally, a simulated diet with a relative ratio of energy from fats:carbohydrates of 20%:80% results in individuals snacking after 9PM 93% of days for both sexes, whereas a relative fats:carbohydrates ratio of 80%:20% results in late night snacking approximately 55% and 60% of days for males and females, respectively. Agents consuming at least a 40%:60% relative ratio of energy from fats:carbohydrates can achieve the largest reductions in total calories consumed and late-night snacking compared to consuming higher relative proportions of carbohydrates. Conclusions: Eating a diet with at least 40% 20 of its energy from fats relative to carbohydrates can achieve the largest reductions in total calories consumed and late-night snacking each day compared to consuming higher proportions of carbohydrates, with even further reductions as more fat is added to the diet, when considering the physiological responses to dietary intake alone. Future research should layer in other strong contributing factors to eating such as stress, social context, palatability, physical activity, types of macronutrients, etc. and also represent other metabolic profiles and ages.