Investigating Fort Reno, Oklahoma, growing season temperature and precipitation maxima temporal variability and corresponding impacts to hydrological and agricultural observations

Authors: Flanagan, Paul

Submitted to: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/21/2026
Publication Date: 1/29/2026
Citation: Flanagan, P.X. 2026. Investigating Fort Reno, Oklahoma, growing season temperature and precipitation maxima temporal variability and corresponding impacts to hydrological and agricultural observations. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 64. Article 103177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103177.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103177

Interpretive Summary: Water resources are crucial to the success of agricultural production within the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Recent research has shown that shifts in evolution of precipitation can be linked to shifts in the timing of the growing season maxima in daily precipitation and daily maximum temperatures. The goal of this project was to investigate the growing season maxima in daily precipitation and daily maximum temperature using the large data resources available at the Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center El Reno location and determine if the regional results are seen at the local scale. Results show that precipitation, and related water resource metrics, are impacted by shifts in the timing in the maxima of growing season precipitation and maximum temperature. Namely when the precipitation maxima occur before the temperature maxima, more precipitation falls in the earlier growing season leading to enhanced water resources in the ground and hydrologic systems within the study site. When the precipitation maxima occur after the temperature maxima water resources are more scarce during the growing season, as precipitation primarily falls later in the growing season after wheat harvest occurs. Overall, the results of this study confirm that the growing season maxima in daily precipitation and daily maximum temperature are important features to investigate at both regional and local scales, which warrants further investigations of this feature across different agricultural areas within the United States, especially at other data rich USDA locations.

Technical Abstract: The variability of water is important to the short and long-term success of agricultural producers within the United States Southern Great Plains (SGP), especially with regards to sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation. Recent research has shown that the timing of the growing season (March through September) maxima in daily maximum temperature and daily precipitation is related to the sub-seasonal to seasonal variability of precipitation within the SGP agricultural region. However, it is still uncertain if these regional results will translate to the local scale, and thus the goal of this work is to extend research into the asynchronous difference index (ADI) to the site level, namely the Fort Reno location within the USDA-Agricultural Research Service Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center. Data from a variety of sources and studies were combined to investigate ADI and its impacts on meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural facets of the local environment and the Fort Reno location. Analysis of the data available for this study show that ADI impacts the environment similarly to that seen in previous results, namely that April to June precipitation is enhanced (reduced) for positive (negative) ADI growing seasons and July to October precipitation is reduced (enhanced) for positive (negative) ADI growing seasons. These distinct regimes of precipitation variability led to impacts in the local hydrology, namely changes in runoff and stream flow. Agricultural yields were also impacted, as positive ADI growing seasons enhanced winter wheat yields, while negative ADI growing seasons led to a yield reduction. Overall, this study shows that the regional aspects of ADI translate to the local scale, and that the different regimes of ADI relate to distinct hydrologic and agricultural outcomes at the local scale.