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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center » Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #425634
Research Project: Development of a Monitoring Network, Engineering Tools, and Guidelines for the Design, Analysis, and Rehabilitation of Embankment Dams, Hydraulic Structures, and Channels

Location: Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit

Title: Anticipated changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics in the Mississippi River Basin

Author
item DOMMO, ATANAS - University Of Missouri
item LUPO, ANTHONY - University Of Missouri
item Hunt, Sherry
item ALOYSIUS, NOEL - University Of Missouri

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/12/2025
Publication Date: 4/12/2025
Citation: Dommo, A., Lupo, A., Hunt, S., Aloysius, N. 2025. Anticipated changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics in the Mississippi River Basin. Abstract. Digital Agriculture Symposium, Columbia, MO.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Extreme precipitation and temperature have been the cause of severe floods and droughts over the United States. In this study, we analyze the changes of extreme precipitation and temperature indices at 1.5°C and 2°C over the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) under two Shared Socio-economic pathways: (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. We used the Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantiles Mapping reordering (BCCAQ) algorithm to downscale and correct the biases in daily precipitation and near surface air temperature variables from a set 12 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. Results indicate that both warming targets are expected to exacerbate the very heavy precipitation (R95p). Our analysis also indicated that extreme precipitation and temperature continue to increase in the MRB. On the other hand, the Cumulative Wet Days (CWD), which is an indicator for how much it has been raining or snowing during a time frame, diminishes almost everywhere over the MRB regardless of the SSPs. As the overall global air temperatures increase, our results show a projected increase in warm days (TX90p) and warm spell duration by 50% under SSP2-4.5 and nearly 100% under SSP5-8.5 over the MRB subregions. The interior parts of the MRB is projected to experience decreased precipitation related indices. Our uncertainty estimates underpin high magnitude, with contribution to total variance being 75% from internal variability and nearly 23% from climate models. This dominance of uncertainty over the magnitude of change is probably due to inter-models’ variability. This research is anticipated to inform researchers, emergency managers, farmers, dam operators, insurance agents, lenders, and policy makers about creating strategies and mitigation plans to address the impacts of changing weather patterns have on disaster recovery, conservation practices, farming operations, residential and commercial development, and regulations like zoning laws.