Refining drought assessment: A multi-dimensional analysis of condition monitoring observer reports in Missouri (2018–2024)

Authors: WEAVER, SARAH - University Of Missouri; LUPO, ANTHONY - University Of Missouri; Hunt, Sherry; ALOYSIUS, NOEL - University Of Missouri

Submitted to: Atmosphere
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/25/2025
Publication Date: 3/28/2025
Citation: Weaver, S.M., Lupo, A.R., Hunt, S., Aloysius, N. 2025. Refining drought assessment: A multi-dimensional analysis of condition monitoring observer reports in Missouri (2018–2024). Atmosphere. 16(4). Article 389. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040389.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040389

Interpretive Summary: Droughts can have serious impacts on communities, agriculture, and water resources. When rainfall is scarce for an extended period, it can lead to dry conditions that harm crops, reduce water levels in rivers and lakes, and affect the economy. In Missouri, droughts have occurred almost every year from 2018 to 2024, sometimes with severe consequences. This study takes a closer look at how droughts develop and how we can better understand their effects using reports from everyday people. This research considered three key resources of data and information including the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMORs), the New Drought Index (NDI), and atmospheric blocking. CMORs are submitted by farmers ranchers, and community members, who provide valuable, real-world insights into how droughts impact the land, water, and people. The NDI is a tool that combines temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture data to measure drought severity more accurately. Atmospheric blocking is a weather pattern that can prevent rain from reaching certain areas, making drought conditions worse. By studying past weather trends and drought reports, the research team was able to see how these patterns influence drought conditions across Missouri. This study offers a new and improved way to monitor droughts, helping scientists, farmers, and policymakers make better decisions about water use, farming practices, and emergency responses. By combining real-life observations with scientific data, this research helps create a more complete understanding of drought and how we can prepare for future dry periods.

Technical Abstract: In this study, we propose an enhanced methodology for assessing drought conditions through the systematic categorization of Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMORs) from Missouri between 2018 and 2024. Our approach introduces a novel classification framework to categorize drought impacts—meteorological, agricultural, hydro-logical, and socioeconomic—and aligns the analysis with established United States Drought Monitor (USDM) severity classifications, ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. To complement this framework, we incorporate the New Drought Index (NDI), a recently developed quantitative metric that integrates various parameters reflected by monthly or seasonal temperature and precipitation (atmospheric) anomalies, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of drought severity and its temporal and spatial dynamics. Additionally, atmospheric blocking patterns, known to disrupt moisture transport and exacerbate drought conditions where they reside, but wetter conditions up and downstream of them are analyzed as indicators of drought events. Advanced text processing techniques are employed to extract and categorize qualitative data from observer reports, bridging the gap between qualitative insights and quantitative metrics. By combining observer-based insights, NDI-derived data, and atmospheric phenomena, this research presents a holistic framework for understanding drought conditions. The findings underscore the importance of integrating atmospheric processes and advanced indices to refine drought monitoring, inform climate adaptation strategies, and support proactive resource management, ultimately advancing the predictive capabilities of drought assessment.