Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty

Authors: TOTH, LAUREN - Us Geological Survey (USGS); BORER, ELIZABETH - University Of Minnesota; BURKEPILE, DERON - University Of California; DUDNEY, JOAN - University Of California; LEMOINE, NATHAN - Marquette University; RENZI, JULIANA - University Of California; SMITH, KATHRYN - Us Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center; COURTNEY, TRAVIS - University Of Puerto Rico; GOEKING, SARA - Us Forest Service (FS); HAMMOND, WILLIAM - University Of Florida; Hoover, David; MACFADYEN, SANDRA - Stellenbosch University; OSLAND, MICHAEL - Us Geological Survey (USGS); TOWNSEND, JOSEPH - University Of Puerto Rico; FIDLER, ROBERT - Us Geological Survey (USGS)

Submitted to: Conservation Biology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/26/2025
Publication Date: 3/9/2026
Citation: Toth, L.T., Borer, E.T., Burkepile, D.E., Dudney, J., Lemoine, N.P., Renzi, J.J., Smith, K.A., Courtney, T.A., Goeking, S.A., Hammond, W.M., Hoover, D.L., MacFadyen, S., Osland, M.J., Townsend, J.E., Fidler, R.Y. 2026. Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty. Conservation Biology. 40(3). Article e70250. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.70250.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.70250

Interpretive Summary: Many ecosystems around the world are dominated by habitat-forming foundational species, such as corals in coral reefs, mangroves in mangrove forests, or eastern hemlock in forests. These species are not only in high abundance in these environment, they also create the habitat that define the ecosystem's structure and function. However environmental shifts away from historical baselines are likely to result novel climatic conditions, with potentially large impacts on foundational species and the ecosystems they support. In this article, we outline several scenarios of how ecosystems may respond to loss of foundational species, and highlight the need for adaptive management strategies to support ecological resilience and functionality.

Technical Abstract: Climate change is driving unprecedented losses of dominant habitat-forming taxa across ecosystems globally. As climatic novelty becomes the norm, ecosystem transitions will become increasingly common, challenging the utility of using historical baselines as guides for ecosystem management. Recognizing and understanding the implications of ecosystem transitions for future ecosystem functioning, is crucial. We outline three scenarios of ecosystem reassembly following the loss of previously dominant habitat-forming taxa: (1) functionally similar subdominant or immigrating taxa compensate, maintaining ecosystem function; (2) no compensation occurs and there is a decline in ecosystem structure and function; and (3) the ecosystem transforms into a new ecosystem type. These scenarios highlight the urgent need to implement adaptive management strategies to assess ecological, societal, and financial feasibility of potential actions while leveraging tools like local-scale climatic novelty analysis, niche modeling, and trait-based approaches to predict ecosystem trajectories, balance trade-offs, and optimize functional outcomes of management actions. By acknowledging the high likelihood of ecosystem reassembly, managers can shift away from preserving historical baselines to embracing novel ecosystem futures. This paradigm shift enables proactive planning to support ecological resilience and functionality, ensuring that ecosystem management evolves to meet the challenges of a rapidly changing world.