Model instances for land use scenarios of the Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project

Authors: Reaver, Nathan; LEE, DOGIL - University Of Florida; DE ROOIJ, ROB - University Of Florida; KAPLAN, DAVID - University Of Florida; GRAHAM, WENDY - University Of Florida

Submitted to: Consortium of Universities for Advances of Hydrological Sciences
Publication Type: Other
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/31/2025
Publication Date: 1/31/2025
Citation: Reaver, N.G., Lee, D., De Rooij, R., Kaplan, D.A., Graham, W.D. 2025. Model instances for land use scenarios of the Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project. Consortium of Universities for Advances of Hydrological Sciences. Hydroshare. https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.723aea6cc07747b7b6a77441e6e88d54.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.723aea6cc07747b7b6a77441e6e88d54

Interpretive Summary: Changes agricultural and silvicultural land use and land management can significantly impact the water quality and quantity to downstream receiving water bodies. Understanding such impacts is critical for informing management decisions and developing mitigation strategies. Water quality and quantity impacts of potential land use and land management scenarios can be simulated and quantified using landscape hydrological models (LHMs). The SWAT-MODFLOW models described and presented in this publication are LHMs representing various agricultural and silvicultural land use and management scenarios for North Central Florida. These scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to represent both "bookend" and "realistic" scenarios for the region. The models presented here have been used in several studies to understand the impacts of land use/management on the Floridan Aquifer and its associated hydrological systems at both the farm/forest and regional scale. These models are published and described in detail so that they are publicly available, reproducible, and can be used by scientists and decision makers.

Technical Abstract: This resource contains SWAT-MODFLOW model instances for various land use scenarios for the Santa Fe River of North Central Florida. These land use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders through a participatory modeling process (PMP) within the Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project. The FACETS project was funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (Award Number: 2017-68007-26319) to promote the economic sustainability of agriculture and silviculture in North Florida and South Georgia while protecting water quantity, quality, and habitat in the Upper Floridan Aquifer and the springs and rivers it feeds (https://floridanwater.research.ufl.edu/) . SWAT-MODFLOW couples the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model (MODFLOW) to produce an integrated surface-groundwater model (https://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-modflow/) . Within SWAT-MODFLOW, SWAT handles most surface and soil processes, MODFLOW handles groundwater processes, and both models interact to simulate stream flows. The PMP land use scenarios are the following: 1) Current Condition (Scenario 1) The base model. This model's land uses and management practices are representative of regional production systems. The simulation period is from January 1st, 1980 to December 31st, 2018. The details of this model and its development can be found in, Reaver, N. G. F., D. Lee, R. De Rooij, D. Kaplan, W. Graham (2025). The Floridan Aquifer Collaborative Engagement for Sustainability (FACETS) project SWAT-MODFLOW model of the Santa Fe River, Florida, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.b80dae5c7cc7421b80c40f9ce856dbf5. 2) Restoration Forestry-High (Scenario 2) A restoration bookend scenario. All agriculture (row crop, pasture, hay) and production forestry lands are converted to low-density longleaf pine savanna. 3) Restoration Forestry-Low (Scenario 3) A more limited restoration scenario. 50% of non-irrigated agriculture in areas prioritized for spring restoration are converted to low-density longleaf pine savanna. 4) Agricultural Expansion (Scenario 4) All current forest land suitable for agriculture (i.e., those with soil group A) switches to row crops. 5) Sod-based Rotation (Scenario 5) A scenario with widespread implementation of rotational grazing (45% of row crops switch to a rotational production system) 6) High Tech Precision Agriculture (Scenario 6) A scenario representing widespread adoption of advanced best nutrient management practices (e.g., controlled release N fertilizer) 7) Solar Farm Expansion (Scenario 7) A scenario representing the current maximum possible regional solar farm expansion in the region (maximum solar area is limited by transmission line capacity) 8) Urban Expansion (Scenario 8) Urban expansion scenario using estimates from FL 2070 Report (https://1000fof.org/florida2070/) 9) Mix-n-Match (Scenario 9) A scenario implementing land use and management practices changes from Scenario 3, Scenario 6, and Scenario 7. The details of these nine scenarios can be found in the document "Model_Development_SFRB.pdf" within the "contents" folder of this resource. Additionally, this resource included six Simple Scenarios (i.e., CPMS1, CPMS2, CPMS3, CCPMS1, CCPMS2, and CCPMS3). In these scenarios, all production lands were managed under a single management system level developed by the PMP.