Increased irrigation could mitigate future warming-induced maize yield losses in the Ogallala Aquifer

Authors: ZHANG, LINA - Kansas State University; BAI, GUIHAI - Kansas State University; Evett, Steven; Colaizzi, Paul; XUE, QINGWU - Texas A&M Agrilife; Marek, Gary; Dhungel, Ramesh; ZHAO, HAIDONG - Kansas State University; WAN, NENGHAN - Kansas State University; LIN, XIAOMAO - Kansas State University

Submitted to: Communications Earth & Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/7/2025
Publication Date: 6/20/2025
Citation: Zhang, L., Bai, G., Evett, S.R., Colaizzi, P.D., Xue, Q., Marek, G.W., Dhungel, R., Zhao, H., Wan, N., Lin, X. 2025. Increased irrigation could mitigate future warming-induced maize yield losses in the Ogallala Aquifer. Communications Earth & Environment. 6. Article 483. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02459-y.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02459-y

Interpretive Summary: The scarcity of water resources in the U.S. Southern High Plains is of regional, national and even international concern because the region acts as a breadbasket for the nation and world. The majority of agricultural production in this region depends on irrigation, largely dependent on pumping from the Ogallala or High Plains aquifers, which are yielding less water every year. Over a 20-year period, scientists at the USDA ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas, measured grain corn (maize) crop water use, yield, and crop water productivity under irrigated conditions in the region’s climate. Recently, these data, combined with climate change data, were used by a team of ARS and Kansas State University scientists to develop and model corn water use changes under several scenarios of climate change. The study found that due to increasing heat stress, corn yields would decline by 28% by 2050, even with increased irrigation amounts that cannot be maintained with available aquifer resources. This discovery can enable producers to more effectively adapt irrigate strategies in the region such as converting grain production to forage production that can reduce irrigation withdrawals while maintaining farm economies.

Technical Abstract: Irrigation has long been vital for mitigating the impacts of drought and heat on crop yields. As these climatic extremes increase in the future, additional quantities of irrigation will be needed to maintain current crop production levels. However, how much additional irrigation will be needed remains inadequately explored. Using a statistical model combined with a meta-analysis of irrigated maize (Zea mays) yields across the U.S. High Plains Aquifer, we quantify the effect of increased irrigation amounts on modulating yield response to drought and heat stresses. Our results show that each additional 100 mm of irrigation reduces heat sensitivity by 7.6%. By the 2050s, under a high-emission scenario, irrigated maize yields are projected to decline by 28% on average, primarily due to intensifying heat stress. Mitigating these losses would require an average 70% increase in current irrigation levels. These findings underscore the urgent need for newer adaptive irrigation strategies.