Plant production forecasting; current state and opportunities for advancing grazing land management

Authors: Schantz, Merilynn; Hardegree, Stuart

Submitted to: International Rangeland Congress
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/9/2025
Publication Date: 6/4/2025
Citation: Schantz, M.C., Hardegree, S.P. 2025. Plant production forecasting; current state and opportunities for advancing grazing land management. International Rangeland Congress. pp. 603-610.

Interpretive Summary: Forecasting provides an advantageous way to move from reactive to proactive management. Proactive management would allow producers to better prepare for drought or flooding events, set appropriate stocking rates and avoid inflated hay costs, select the most appropriate crop species for anticipated seasonal conditions, and provide recommendations for rangeland seeding. The process of forecasting begins by accessing high quality climate data. While stationary weather stations provide the highest quality data, they are limited to point-scale locations. Gridded and hybrid gridded stochastic weather generators can help overcome this limitation by providing quality weather information across space. Even with the best historical climate data inputs, forecasting skill will be dependent upon the interaction between region and time of the year. Similarly, the skill of plant production forecasts will depend on the interactions of area of interest, time of year, and plant species phenology. While forecast utility is probabilistic and may not be beneficial in all circumstances, our results suggest that consistent use of climate forecasts could improve the efficiency of agricultural management practices.

Technical Abstract: Forecasting climate and plant production provides an advantageous way to move from reactive to proactive grazing land management. Throughout grazing lands water availability and temperature are primary drivers of annual net primary plant production (ANPP) and total annual precipitation is a fundamental indicator of ANPP in native plant dominated communities that receive less than 500 mm of precipitation. In this paper we review the process by which forecasts are produced and showcase several examples of where climate and plant production forecasts can be useful in diverse US rangeland ecoregions. While forecasting is probabilistic and may not be beneficial in all circumstances, our results suggest that if forecasts are used over time, they can provide higher quality information than just chance alone. Collectively, climate and plant production forecasting could aid in moving grazing land management from a reactive to a proactive discipline by allowing producers to prepare for drought or flooding events, set appropriate stocking rates and avoid inflated hay costs, select the most appropriate crop species for annual conditions, and improve rangeland success by only seeding when weather conditions are suitable for establishment.