Are historical trends in weather consistent with model predictions in the Central United States?

Authors: Baffaut, Claire; Metz, Megan; Moriasi, Daniel; Malone, Robert; Witthaus, Lindsey; Wacha, Kenneth; Goslee, Sarah; HSIEH, HSUN-YI - Michigan State University; ROBERTSON, PHIL - Michigan State University

Submitted to: Journal of Environmental Quality
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/3/2025
Publication Date: 11/7/2025
Citation: Baffaut, C., Metz, M.E., Moriasi, D.N., Malone, R.W., Witthaus, L.M., Wacha, K.M., Goslee, S.C., Hsieh, H., Robertson, P. 2025. Are historical trends in weather consistent with model predictions in the Central United States?. Journal of Environmental Quality. 54(6):1484-1499. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.70066.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.70066

Interpretive Summary: Temperatures and precipitation are expected to increase in many locations in the Central United States. To provide perspective on what these trends might bring relative to what has already happened, we compared predicted trends in monthly temperature and precipitation to historical trends across regions represented by five Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) sites along a North to South transect from Michigan, to Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. Results show that temperatures have increased everywhere over 1900-2020, more for nighttime (0.2 - 0.5 degree Fahrenheit per decade) than daytime (-0.2 - 0.4 degree Fahrenheit per decade), more for winter (-0.2 - 0.5 degree Fahrenheit per decade) than summer (-0.2 - 0.2 degree Fahrenheit per decade), and more often in the north than in the south. Annual precipitation has also increased everywhere, frequently in the spring or October, in spite of a seasonal (November) decline in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. Stronger storm events were detectable everywhere. Projected trends suggest continued temperature and precipitation increases as well as a greater frequency of more intense rainfall events. These results highlight the urgent need for sustaining research efforts on climate smart management systems that are resilient to increasing temperatures and inconsistent precipitation.

Technical Abstract: Model projections predict increasing temperatures and precipitation change in many locations in the Central United States. To provide perspective on what these trends might bring relative to what has already happened, we compared historical temperature and precipitation change with what models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) predict. The analysis focuses on regions represented by five Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) sites along a latitudinal transect from Michigan to Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. We analyzed trends in long-term records (=50 years) of precipitation and temperature data at annual and monthly scales using indicators that characterize extreme and average temperature and rainfall amounts. Results show that temperatures have changed from 1900-2020, more for minimum (0.1 - 0.3 oC decade-1) than maximum (-0.1 - 0.2 oC decade-1), more for winter (-0.1 - 0.3 oC decade-1) than summer (-0.1 - 0.1oC decade-1), and more often in the north than in the south. Except in Mississippi, annual precipitation has increased at rates of 25 mm decade-1 or greater over 1950-2020, but monthly trends were inconsistent. Projected trends suggest continued temperature increases, highlighting the urgent need for research on management systems that are resilient to such increases.