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ARS Home » Plains Area » Temple, Texas » Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #419950
Research Project: Enhancing Cropping System and Grassland Sustainability in the Texas Gulf Coast Region by Managing Systems for Productivity and Resilience

Location: Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory

Title: Extreme precipitation risks in South Asia: Future climate change impacts on population and cropland

Author
item WAHID, SHAHRIAR - Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
item SHAHID, SHAMSUDDIN - Universiti Teknologi Mara (UITM)
item HWANG, SYEWOON - Gyeongsang National University
item Thorp, Kelly
item KAMRUZZAMAN, MOHAMMAD - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute

Submitted to: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/26/2025
Publication Date: 8/13/2025
Citation: Wahid, S., Shahid, S., Hwang, S., Thorp, K.R., Kamruzzaman, M. 2025. Extreme precipitation risks in South Asia: Future climate change impacts on population and cropland. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70057.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70057

Interpretive Summary: Areas of South Asia are particularly vulnerable to climate change, particularly projected changes in extreme precipitation. Studies are needed to assess potential impacts of extreme precipitation to improve targeting of adaptation strategies. This study evaluated the impacts of projected extreme precipitation on both human populations and cropland areas across South Asia. The results demonstrated that the Indo-Gangetic Plain, particularly Bangladesh and eastern India, was the most vulnerable region to projected climate changes. Results of the study will be useful for intergovernmental agencies focusing on mitigation of climate change threats to food security.

Technical Abstract: South Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly to changes in extreme precipitation patterns that significantly impact agriculture, water resources, and population. Using CMIP6 models, this study assesses future exposure of populations and cropland to precipitation extremes for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the periods 2021–2060 and 2061–2100. Four precipitation indices were analyzed: consecutive wet days (CWD), maximum consecutive five-day precipitation (Rx5day), days with precipitation =20 mm (R20mm), and total precipitation (PRCPTOT) . The CMIP6 models projected substantial changes in these extreme precipitation metrics across South Asia in future periods. Specifically, R20mm was projected to increase by 19.0–59.9%, Rx5day by 8.1–14.5%, CWD by 4.4–10.2%, and PRCPTOT by 8.1–15.5% depending on the different SSPs . The projected increases in R20mm and PRCPTOT were most pronounced in western India and Pakistan, while CWD demonstrated substantial increases in central and southern India. The increases in Rx5day were predominantly in central and northern India and Pakistan. The increases in precipitation extremes correspond to a substantial increase in average population exposure of 91.7–122.8% for R20mm, 66.9–74.7% for CWD, 76.1–110.1% for Rx5day, and 104.9–132.5% for PRCPTOT. Similarly, average cropland exposure was projected to increase by 11.0–41.4% for R20mm, 5.6–22.5% for CWD, 5.5–44% for Rx5day, and 7.8–35% for PRCPTOT . The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), particularly Bangladesh and eastern India, was the most vulnerable region to projected climate changes, with the greatest population and cropland exposure to extreme precipitation events in all scenarios. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks of precipitation extremes in the region.