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ARS Home » Plains Area » Fort Collins, Colorado » Center for Agricultural Resources Research » Water Management and Systems Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #418997
Research Project: Improving Resiliency of Semi-Arid Agroecosystems and Watersheds to Change and Disturbance through Data-Driven Research, AI, and Integrated Models

Location: Water Management and Systems Research

Title: Variogram time series analysis applied to the spatial structure of snow accumulation

Author
item FASSNACHT, STEVEN - Colorado State University
item LOPEZ-MORENO, JUAN - The Geological And Mining Institute Of Spain
item Barnard, David
item MORAN-TEJEDA, ENRIQUE - Universitat De Les Illes Balears
item WEBB, RYAN - University Of Wyoming
item VON THADEN, BENJAMIN - Colorado State University
item PFOHL, ANNA - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item COLLADOS-LARA, ANTONIO-JUAN - Universidad De Granada
item MACDONALD, MARIN - Colorado State University
item FLYNN, HELEN - Colorado State University
item TEDESCHE, MOLLY - University Of Alaska

Submitted to: Water Resources Research
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/23/2026
Publication Date: 3/8/2026
Citation: Fassnacht, S., Lopez-Moreno, J.I., Barnard, D.M., Moran-Tejeda, E., Webb, R., Von Thaden, B.C., Pfohl, A., Collados-Lara, A., MacDonald, M.S., Flynn, H., Tedesche, M.E. 2026. Variogram time series analysis applied to the spatial structure of snow accumulation. Water Resources Research. 62(3). Article e2025WR040065. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040065.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040065

Interpretive Summary: This study looked at how snowpack accumulation patterns change across different areas in the Southern Rocky Mountains. Spatial patterns are similar within about 100 kilometers (62 miles) of each other. However, the similarity decreases as distance among sites increases. The study also found that the similarity of snowpack patterns can change depending on the season and whether the ocean is warm or cold (El Niño or La Niña). In the spring and summer, patterns are similar within about 60 kilometers, while in the winter, they can be similar for up to 300 kilometers.

Technical Abstract: The correlation of earth system properties is important for assessing monitoring strategies, scales of modeling, and improving the accuracy of forecasting. We present a new method to examine the scale of similar inter-annual patterns. It is applied to the snowpack accumulation using a time series of daily snow water equivalent data, here applied to the Southern Rocky Mountains of Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico, USA. We examined sub-sets of the data to explore the differences in geographic location, land cover type, and climate patterns (Oceanic Niño Index; ONI). Results indicate that snow accumulation patterns in the Southern Rocky Mountains are consistent up to 100 kilometers, and lesser correlated up to about 380 km. The 100-km consistency is observed regardless of how the data are sub-set. However, the spatial patterns of precipitation vary by season; the summer consistency is about 60 km while the winter consistency is more than 300 km with some variance based on ONI phase.