Variation in patterns of production and water-use efficiency among agroecosystems

Authors: Hajek, Olivia; Kaplan, Nicole; AZAD, SHEFELI - Archbold Biological Station; Fay, Philip; KHORCHANI, MAKKI - University Of Nebraska; Nelson, Amanda; Schreiner-Mcgraw, Adam; Abendroth, Lori; Baffaut, Claire; Baker, John; Bestelmeyer, Brandon; BOUGHTON, ELIZABETH - Archbold Biological Station; Browning, Dawn; Carlson, Bryan; Cavigelli, Michel; Clark, Patrick; Dell, Curtis; GUO, YUXI - University Of Florida; Hendrickson, John; Huggins, David; HUSSAIN, MIR ZAMAN - Michigan State University; King, Kevin; Kovar, John; Liebig, Mark; Locke, Martin; Schmer, Marty; SILVEIRA, MARIA - University Of Florida; Smith, Douglas; Snyder, Keirith; STARKS, PATRICK - Retired ARS Employee; White, Kathryn; WILKE, BROOK - Michigan State University; Hoover, David

Submitted to: Science of the Total Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/17/2025
Publication Date: 7/25/2025
Citation: Hajek, O.L., Kaplan, N.E., Azad, S., Fay, P.A., Khorchani, M., Nelson, A.M., Schreiner-McGraw, A.P., Abendroth, L.J., Baffaut, C., Baker, J.M., Bestelmeyer, B.T., Boughton, E.H., Browning, D.M., Carlson, B.R., Cavigelli, M.A., Clark, P., Dell, C.J., Guo, Y., Hendrickson, J.R., Huggins, D.R., Hussain, M., King, K.W., Kovar, J.L., Liebig, M.A., Locke, M.A., Schmer, M.R., Silveira, M., Smith, D.R., Snyder, K.A., Starks, P., White, K.E., Wilke, B., Hoover, D.L. 2025. Variation in patterns of production and water-use efficiency among agroecosystems. Science of the Total Environment. 995. Article e180115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180115.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180115

Interpretive Summary: There is growing concern that shifts in water availability with climate change will negatively impact agricultural production. Empirical evidence on how different agroecosystems will respond to variable water resources is limited, yet such understanding will be fundamental for managing agroecosystem resilience and global food security. We assessed the relationships among precipitation, aboveground production, and water-use efficiency across diverse US agroecosystems, spanning rangelands, pasturelands, and croplands over broad climate gradients. Despite similar precipitation amounts, we found that croplands were 570% more productive than rangelands but showed a 74% reduced sensitivity to precipitation. The decoupling of production and precipitation in croplands highlights the need to compare agroecosystem responses at large scales to effectively plan adaptive management strategies with climate change.

Technical Abstract: Across agroecosystems, water is a key driver of primary production, and thus, the relationship between water and production (i.e., water-use efficiency; WUE) provides an important indicator for evaluating agroecosystem resilience to climate change. While this relationship has been well-characterized in relatively unmanaged, native ecosystems, cross-site syntheses spanning diverse agroecosystems and climate gradients are lacking. Here, we leveraged the USDA’s Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network to assess the relationship between precipitation and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) across an extensive set of climate conditions and rainfed production systems, including rangelands, croplands, and pasturelands - focusing on how agroecosystems differ in their sensitivity to precipitation. We utilized long-term (mean = 17 years) ANPP data from fifteen LTAR sites, spanning a precipitation gradient of 265 to 1347 mm yr-1. As observed in native ecosystems, we found a positive relationship between annual precipitation and ANPP across different agroecosystems. Despite spanning similar precipitation gradients, precipitation sensitivity varied among agroecosystems, with rangeland ANPP most sensitive to precipitation and croplands and pasturelands having significant declines in WUE over the precipitation gradient. Large differences in overall ANPP among agroecosystem types underlie these patterns, as cropland ANPP was 570% of rangeland and 212% of pastureland ANPP. While accounting for differences in agroecosystem type captures much of the variability in the relationship between ANPP and precipitation at the continental scale, understanding the more subtle differences in climate sensitivity among these globally widespread agroecosystems will be fundamental for assessing agroecosystem vulnerabilities and promoting long-term resilience.