Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate

Authors: LISONBEE, JOEL - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); PARKER, BRITT - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); FLEISHMAN, ERICA - Oregon State University; FORD, TRENT - Illinois State Water Survey; BOCINSKY, KYLE - Montana Department Of Environmental Quality; FOLLINSTAD, GRETEL - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); FRAZIER, ABBY - Clark University; HOYLMAN, ZACHARY - Montana Department Of Environmental Quality; Hudson, Amy; NIELSEN-GAMMON, JOHN - Texas A&M University; UMPHLETT, NATALIE - University Of Nebraska; WICKHAM, ELLIOT - University Of Nebraska; BAMZAI-DODSON, APARNA - Us Geological Survey (USGS); FONTENOT, ROYCE - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); FUCHS, BRIAN - University Of Nebraska; HAMMOND, JOHN - University Of Nebraska; Herrick, Jeffrey; HOBBINS, MIKE - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); HOELL, ANDREW - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); JONES, JACOB - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); LANE, ERIN - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); LEASOR, ZACHARY - Lincoln University Of Missouri; LIU, YONGQIANG - Us Forest Service (FS); OTKIN, JASON - University Of Wisconsin; SHEFFIELD, AMANDA - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Todey, Dennis; PULWARTY, RODGER - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Submitted to: Earth's Future
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 12/19/2024
Publication Date: 3/2/2025
Citation: Lisonbee, J., Parker, B., Fleishman, E., Ford, T., Bocinsky, K., Follinstad, G., Frazier, A., Hoylman, Z.H., Hudson, A.R., Nielsen-Gammon, J., Umphlett, N., Wickham, E., Bamzai-Dodson, A., Fontenot, R., Fuchs, B., Hammond, J., Herrick, J.E., Hobbins, M., Hoell, A., Jones, J., Lane, E., Leasor, Z., Liu, Y., Otkin, J., Sheffield, A., Todey, D.P., Pulwarty, R. 2025. Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate. Earth's Future. 13(3). Article e2024EF005276. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005276.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005276

Interpretive Summary: The book "Nature and Bureaucracy" is a fascinating exploration of what the author describes as “traditional bureaucratic knowledge” and how it is applied to decisions affecting interactions between humans, land, water and wildlife. The book could, and perhaps should, serve as a challenge to those who become scientists because we hope to inform policy, and then devote our careers to promoting our measurements, metrics and models. My only caution to readers is to expect some repetition of concepts both within and among chapters, particularly between Chapters 4 and 5. The latter, titled “Managing natural resources in Alaska: anthropology bureaucratized” very effectively illustrates many of the nuggets of insight and wisdom found throughout the book in a structure that is relatively easy to follow. Discovering these nuggets, embedded in the substrate of every extensively footnoted chapter, kept me looking for more even when my 21st century attention span began to wonder how many pages remained in a chapter.

Technical Abstract: Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.