Skip to main content
ARS Home » Northeast Area » University Park, Pennsylvania » Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #418590
Research Project: Comprehensive Environmental Framework to Facilitate Resilient and Sustainable Intensification of Crop-Livestock Systems

Location: Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research

Title: The future of oilseeds: climate change expected to negatively impact canola more than camelina

Author
item Quinlan, Gabriela
item Goslee, Sarah

Submitted to: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/28/2025
Publication Date: 6/19/2025
Citation: Quinlan, G.M., Goslee, S.C. 2025. The future of oilseeds: climate change expected to negatively impact canola more than camelina. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 7. Article 149829. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2025.1498293.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2025.1498293

Interpretive Summary: Oilseed crops, especially canola, are key contributors to US agricultural economy. Canola production is greatest in the Northern Great Plains, but that region may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Camelina is an oilseed crop that is more tolerant of cold and drought and can grow on poor soils, so it has been proposed as a climate-smart alternative to canola. We mapped the climate and soils in regions where canola and camelina are currently grown and projected those regions fifty years into the future to better understand how climate change may affect potential oilseed crop distributions. Both crops will be vulnerable to future climate change, but canola will be more strongly impacted. Camelina may be a climate-smart crop to consider for the future.

Technical Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter environmental suitability for crops. In the United States, the Northern Great Plains (NGP), a primary production area for many crops, including oilseeds, is at particular risk for decreasing cropland suitability under climate change. While canola (Brassica napus) has historically dominated oilseed production in the NGP, camelina (Camelina sativa) has been suggested as a potential climate-smart oilseed crop for the future due to agronomic attributes including drought tolerance, low input requirements, and cold hardiness. In this study, we examine the viability of both camelina and canola under future climate scenarios by first defining their current environmental niche and then projecting their potential distribution under two different carbon emission scenarios. While both crops are currently grown primarily in the NGP, we found that they have distinct spatial and environmental ranges, and that these ranges are largely consistent with what is described in the literature about their differing biological niches. We also find that under future climate change senecios, environmental suitability for both crops is projected to decrease, though more so for canola. This study helps to identify specific regions that may experience shifts (positive or negative) in environmental suitability for growing canola and camelina, but more broadly sheds light on the nonstationary and shifting range suitability that might be expected for crops under climate change.